The importance of the bypolls to 28 Assembly seats in Madhya Pradesh on Tuesday goes beyond the simple arithmetic of redefining the majority numbers in the Assembly.
These polls not only have the potential of changing the government in the State, if the Congress manages to win all the seats, but will also change the standing of the leaders in their respective parties.
The math certainly works in favour of the Shivraj Singh Chouhan -led BJP government as it needs to win only nine seats in the 230-member Assembly to cross the halfway mark on its own, compared to 28 for the Congress.
But for the Congress party, still smarting from Jyotiraditya Scindia ’s switchover to the BJP, the elections are also about making a dent in the Gwalior-Chambal region, believed to be a stronghold of the Scindias.
More than half (16) of the 28 seats are being contested in this region and if the Congress manages to do well, it will prove a point to Mr. Scindia, who is also having to contend with BJP strongman from the region, Union Rural Development Minister Narendra Singh Tomar.
If Mr. Scindia, on the other hand, manages to deliver, he will consolidate his position in his new party, the BJP.
Prestige battle
“These elections are about the betrayal of people’s mandate and people will vote against the turncoats [Congress defectors],” said Arun Yadav, former Madhya Pradesh Congress Committee chief.
The bypolls, necessitated by the resignation of 25 Congress lawmakers who were Mr. Scindia’s loyalists, are also being projected as a prestige battle between former Chief Minister and present State Congress chief Kamal Nath and Mr. Scindia, as his departure was largely blamed on Mr. Nath and Digvijaya Singh.
In 2018, Mr. Scindia, who was Congress’ chief campaigner, was overlooked for the Chief Minister’s post despite the backing of then party chief Rahul Gandhi.
The old guard managed to ‘convince’ the party High Command that Mr. Nath, with his connections, was the best choice for the party going into the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.
Already sidelined when the Congress chose Mr. Singh over Mr. Scindia as the party’s first candidate for the Rajya Sabha polls earlier this year, it triggered the collapse of the Kamal Nath’s 15-month government with Mr. Scindia’s exit.
“Of the 28 seats in the bypolls, 27 belonged to the Congress. How many can Kamal Nathji win back will be his test of leadership,” said Pankaj Chaturvedi, a Scindia loyalist who is now in the BJP.
So, if the Congress does well in the Hindi heartland State, Mr. Nath will cement his position in the faction-ridden State unit or else, the question of leadership will certainly be revisited.
