The recapture of the ancient city of Palmyra by Syrian government forces marks one of the biggest setbacks for the Islamic State since the group announced its ‘Caliphate’ in June 2014. It also demonstrates the continued weakening of the IS on the battleground. It lost about 14 per cent of the territory in Iraq and Syria last year, including the city of Ramadi, to Iraqi troops. Several factors have been at play in structurally weakening the IS over the past few months. The tide started turning against it when in June it lost Tal Abyad, a strategically important town on the Turkish-Syrian border, to Kurdish rebels. The town was one of the IS’s main access points for smuggling in weapons, materiel and fighters. Turkey’s move to tighten its long and porous border with Syria after jihadists began attacking Turkish cities and international pressure mounted on Ankara, squeezed the IS’s cross-border supply lines. Pointed U.S. air strikes on the group’s oil infrastructure and training camps too weakened it both financially and organisationally. But the final blow came from Russia. From the beginning of its intervention in Syria, Russian President Vladimir Putin kept saying that the best answer to the terrorists in Syria would be the “restoration of statehood”. This is what Russia achieved in Syria. Five months of Russian intervention has bolstered the regime of Bashar Al-Assad, raised the morale of its troops and helped it make major advances on the ground. The ceasefire in Syria, which led to a partial suspension of the fighting with the rebels, may also have helped government forces to use their resources more effectively.
Palmyra is an instance that could be repeated in future battles against the IS: first weaken the organisation through multiple attacks and then launch a final ground offensive by the most organised military force — in this case the Syrian national army — to recapture territories. For the IS, territory is important. It is its hold over territories that makes the IS different from other jihadist groups. The claim of establishing a ‘Caliphate’ comes out of the territories it controls. So every time it loses land the ‘Caliphate’ shrinks, weakening its terror machinery further. The fight against the IS will not be complete unless its core is destroyed. This is not an easy task, however. The group seems to be deeply entrenched in Raqqa, its de facto capital. Mosul is still under its control. If the advances made in Ramadi and Palmyra are to be taken forward, there has to be coordination between the anti-IS forces, including the U.S. and the Syrian army. President Assad is less of a threat than Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. Mr. Assad’s fate could be decided through a political process, which is now under way, but not that of Baghdadi. Both the peace process in Syria between the regime and the rebels and the war on the IS in Syria and Iraq could continue simultaneously. The international community must help the Syrian and Iraqi governments continue their campaigns to free more territories from the IS.
Published - March 31, 2016 01:51 am IST
