YES | Pawan Khera
When the NDA candidates seek votes, they will discover that 2019 is about Modi versus voters
It is not only political pundits, everyone is spewing gyaan on the likely scenarios in the run-up to the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. Clichéd acronyms have crept back into our day-to-day parlance — TINA (There Is No Alternative), ABM (Anyone But Modi), and so on and so forth.
All through the tenure of this government, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his advisers have committed the greatest blunder of making the government a one-man affair. It is all about Mr. Modi. Such a high degree of centralisation coupled with the party perpetually being in campaign mode is now making people impatient. That is the risk you run when you succumb to the temptation of being permanently in the spotlight.
Understanding ground reality
Political parties, when in Opposition, are the closest to the ground reality. Leaders have the mind space and inclination to gather ground intelligence. It is that ground reality which brings parties to realign their politics and tune it to changes. The results of the bypolls in Phulpur, Gorakhpur and Kairana did not come out of thin air. The coming together of the Congress and the Janata Dal (Secular) too happened because of a deeper comprehension of the mood of the nation. Such comprehension does not always beam bright for those in power and blinded by their spot in the sun. From the Congress in the 1970s to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) before the 2004 election, we have all been through that blinding phase.
This government also has an additional disadvantage: the media rarely talks back. Exclamation marks replace question marks in the grammar of obedience. If United Progressive Alliance-2 saw an overdose of media activism, the National Democratic Alliance government is saddled with a new class of cheerleading mediapersons. Echo chambers are clearly having a deafening effect. If the Modi camp is happy in believing that the BJP has become a centripetal force in Indian politics, and it is Modi versus the rest, they should remember that the NDA is an alliance of 47 parties.
Allies who are upset
The post-Gujarat and Karnataka humbling of BJP president Amit Shah has taken him to the doorstep of the Shiv Sena. The Telugu Desam Party (TDP) has severed all ties with the BJP in an ugly showdown between the two. Rashtriya Lok Samata Party president Upendra Kushwaha is showing clear signs of unrest. Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar too is using a language which the mighty Mr. Shah is not yet used to. The talk of one nation, one poll is not going down well with regional parties as it clearly undermines electoral federalism. In 2014, the BJP peaked in Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, etc. In 2018, it finds it difficult to make a dent in new territories such as in the southern States, West Bengal and Odisha. And where the BJP is in power, anti-incumbency is fast catching up. The BJP lost all but one of the 13 parliamentary and Assembly by-elections held in 2018.
Therefore, if there is the prospect of Modi versus the rest, it is not because everybody finds Mr. Modi invincible and has come together to defeat him. It is because regional parties, which were already finding it humiliating to deal with the Modi-Shah duo, now also do not find it beneficial to have any deal with the Modi-Shah-led BJP.
The Modi government has invested hugely in manipulating the attention of Indians. However, when the BJP/NDA candidates seek a fresh mandate from the people, they will face tough questions on the economic downturn, agrarian distress, Dalit atrocities, right-wing aggression, women’s safety, unemployment and the woes of the small trader. They will then discover that 2019 is about Modi versus voters.
Pawan Khera is a national spokesperson of the Indian National Congress
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NO | Vinay Sahasrabuddhe
Those assailing the BJP now have done business with the party in the past
My blunt response to the question is ‘no’. This is mainly because those who are trying to build this forum to isolate the BJP by getting together all the forces opposed to the BJP are, in fact, daydreaming.
Façade of anti-BJP-ism
There are a number of internal contradictions within their own States where they cannot keep the façade of anti-BJP-ism. There are political parties that don’t see eye to eye in their respective States. For example, for the TDP or the Biju Janata Dal (BJD) in Odisha, it will be difficult to go with the Congress.
Those assailing the BJP now have done business with the party in the past and cannot claim to be entirely anti-BJP. Their opposition is purely political. Whether it is the TDP or the BJD, their anti-BJP-ism is just skin deep. In the past, when non-BJP parties came together, they would swear by secularism from the rooftops. Now, they don’t utter the word secularism as they have realised that people have become aware of their sham commitment to secularism. Their credentials are in doubt. Therefore, the only glue which will help them stick together is their vehement opposition to Prime Minister Narendra Modi. This togetherness will last till the time of seat-sharing.
How can the Telangana people forget the way the Congress, including the previous Chief Minister of Andhra Pradesh, opposed the division of Andhra Pradesh and the creation of Telangana? Same with West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee. How can she bury the hatchet entirely and join hands with the communists? How about the Muslim vote bank which she believes she has the monopoly on? Will the Congress allow her the monopoly?
Most of these parties which are now ganging up against the BJP cannot match up to the performance of the BJP-ruled States in governance. The politics of performance is a terminology, the copyright of which is with the BJP. Whether it is H.D. Kumaraswamy or Ms. Banerjee, they cannot match up to Devendra Fadnavis, Raman Singh, Manohar Parrikar or Raghubar Das.
Divisiveness, which they very funnily accuse us of, is nothing but their manufactured vision. The fragmentation of the political class is at its peak in the Northeast. In a tiny region like the Northeast, there are dozens of political parties and at least 60-70% are with the BJP under the North-East Democratic Alliance. How can we be divisive when we are bringing all shades of political parties together? Obviously there is much substance when Amit Shah says we will fight 2019 with more partners. Could one have imagined working with Mehbooba Mufti? But we are the masters of alliances and the art of coalition politics. It started with Atal Bihari Vajpayee. On the basis of a functional agenda with a specific plan of action, we have in a way successfully run coalition governments.
The BJP stands a good chance
For most of the regional parties, till recently their main enemy was the Congress. If they have eaten into somebody’s vote bank, it is the Congress’s. They have absolutely no claim on the traditional supporters of the BJP. Our areas of influence or operation do not overlap like those of the Congress. Therefore, we stand a very good chance, even in the event of facing a huge isolation.
As told to Anuradha Raman
Vinay Sahasrabuddhe is a national vice president of the Bharatiya Janata Party
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IT’S COMPLICATED | Yogendra Yadav
This is about conceding that there are no meaningful choices for the electorate
We miss the point by asking a limited and limiting question like this one. The real question is not whether the Opposition will manage to unite; it is, what will such a contest mean for our democracy? Will it save our republic from the onslaught on its foundations?
Two developments
The last few months have seen two developments. On the one hand, Opposition politics has moved inexorably towards some kind of an anti-BJP coalition. The Bengaluru show of Opposition unity has been further reinforced by the results of the bypolls in U.P. It won’t be a direct contest between the BJP and the rest of the Opposition, but major Opposition parties are likely to have a broad understanding, if not an alliance. On the other hand, it is quite clear that this coalition will have nothing else in common. It will be all about opposing the BJP. Both these developments have reinforced each other. The fear of Mr. Modi makes parties lower the threshold of consensus to achieve a wider alliance, which in turn makes it much more difficult to ask what the alliance is all about.
That is of course not how this alliance will be presented. We should expect to hear a lot about saving democracy, secularism and the nation from the clutches of the BJP. That indeed is what the country needs today. But should we expect Mamata Banerjee, fresh from hijacking the Panchayat elections in West Bengal, to rescue democracy? Is secularism safe in the hands of the Azam Khan-style of Samajwadi Party politics? Or with the Shiv Sena, which is seriously flirting with the Opposition? Should we expect Sharad Pawar, Mayawati and Lalu Prasad to deliver India from the scourge of corruption? Or Rahul Gandhi’s Congress to now save the nation?
Forget principles. Can we expect this united Opposition to commit itself to some policies that can make a difference to the people? Can it come up with concrete policies to respond to the agrarian crisis? Will it have anything to offer to the army of unemployed youth? Will we get another wild promise of n-million jobs, or a willingness to reorient economic policies to generate more employment?
Let’s keep even policies aside. Let’s talk practicalities. Can we expect an anti-BJP coalition of this kind to stay together for a reasonable period of time? We have just seen the drama in Karnataka. Perhaps more is to come. Will we not see something similar on the national stage? Do we not remember what happened after the Janata fiasco in 1979? To put it bluntly: will an anti-Modi coalition be just the foil that could facilitate Mr. Modi’s return to power?
A rag-tag coalition and its aim
Will it succeed in removing the BJP from power? Let’s not even look that far ahead. Let’s focus on the outcome of the 2019 polls. It does not take much for a voter to see all that we have been talking about. Do we expect a rag-tag coalition to inspire trust among the voters? You can trust the Prime Minister to spin this fact around in the polls. He could take a leaf from Indira Gandhi’s famous demolition of the Grand Opposition in 1971: “Wo kehte hain Indira hatao, main kehti hoon garibi hatao (They say remove Indira, I say remove poverty)!” The magic of Mr. Modi is surely on the wane, but he still has unlimited money, an uncritical media and an unmatched election machine with him. BJP versus the rest may or may not happen. But let’s not delude ourselves: it is not about providing our electorate with a meaningful and effective choice. It is about conceding that there are no meaningful choices.
Yogendra Yadav is President of the newly formed political party, Swaraj India.
