Peace lost a chance in Agra

By K.K. Katyal

NEW DELHI, JULY 18. Who gained, who lost at Agra? Among the losers were the sub- continent, nay, the whole of South Asia, the cause of peace and security, and the people of Kashmir. The gainers included the jehadis in Pakistan and the hawks in the two countries. The Pakistan President, Gen. Pervez Musharraf, benefitted personally, the Prime Minister, Mr. Atal Behari Vajpayee, neither gained nor lost. Those who had been advocating resumption of the high-level dialogue could derive some satisfaction that the days of ``contactlessness'' are past. The information and publicity set- up of the Indian Government is licking its wounds, inflicted by the critics of its performance at Agra.

Wide, indeed, is the range of the repercussions of the Agra summit, the first event of its type after two years and four months. Connected with the Agra balance-sheet is another question whether the summit was a failure or a half-success? The monument of love at Agra did not induce any mellowing among the top leaders or those assisting them. Had that not been the case, the rigidities, because of which a joint declaration could not be signed, would have melted. It was a strange case, with the sherpas finding themselves at the peak, along with the summiteers at the same time, instead of the former clearing the treacherous tracks for the latter.

Think of the situation, had a joint declaration been issued by Mr. Vajpayee and Gen. Musharraf. Some measure of stability would have been introduced in the bilateral relations, sending out positive signals throughout the length and breadth of the two countries, notably Jammu and Kashmir. Had a mechanism been set up to address Kashmir and other issues, the prospects for increased trade and other contacts brightened, the people, especially in the trouble-torn State would have felt relieved because of a promise of respite from violence and instability. All that has not happened and, as a result, the cause of peace and security has suffered. One hopes it is a temporary phase. The militant organisations and the jehadi elements, based in Pakistan, had made no secret of their unhappiness over the move for summit talks, determined as they were to continue ``the freedom struggle''. They feel vindicated and reassured by the inability of the summit to produce an agreement.

As for Gen. Musharraf, the gain could not have been bigger. For nearly two years, he felt ``humiliated'' by New Delhi's reluctance to do business with him. Mr. Vajpayee's invitation was a major break - it confirmed his legitimacy and rubbed off the stigma of a coup leader. At one stage, in the run- up to the summit, Mr. Vajpayee addressed him as ``President'', well before the official announcement of the change in Pakistan. It meant recognition of his new role. The General's stay in India - the banquet by the President, Mr. K.R. Narayanan, the tea party at the Pakistan High Commissioner's house and non-political but nonetheless highly sentimental visit to his house in Delhi and, finally, the four rounds of discussions with Mr. Vajpayee, at Agra - served to remove even the slight trace of illegitimacy, that might have remained.

As for Mr. Vajpayee, the pluses and minuses cancelled each other. It started with a boost for him for his ``courageous, far-sighted move'' for the dialogue and ended with mixed feelings - of disappointment and dismay, on the one hand, and criticism for making half-baked preparations, on the other.

The summit process continues, though the Agra round failed. The Agra process is to be seen in relation to the minimum realistic expectation, before the summit. To the extent, there was no occasion to celebrate fulfilment, it was a failure. On the other hand, the resolve of the two sides to keep up contacts at various levels, including the top is, no doubt, a beneficial fall-out. The process will continue and, hopefully, produce a mutually acceptable declaration.

In the Agra discussions, the two sides got over the problem, arising from Pakistan's insistence on the centrality of Kashmir. The draft declaration said at the start that the Kashmir issue was central to normalisation of relations, and envisaged regular contacts in the future - like annual summits and by- annual meetings of Foreign Ministers. But the trouble arose when the job for the Foreign Ministers was to be specified - India wanted it to include cross-border terrorism, and Pakistan favoured simple ``terrorism''.

The two Foreign Ministers, Mr. Jaswant Singh, and Mr. Abdul Sattar, while giving their version of the discussions at Agra, were noticeably restrained, as they referred to the outlook for the near future, at their respective press conferences. Perhaps Gen. Musharraf's farewell call before his departure for Islamabad, on Mr. Vajpayee was used productively by the two sides - with the decision to give a positive projection, with emphasis on the continuity of the process.

What happened on Monday night, at the time of the General's call on the Prime Minister, showed the inadequacy of New Delhi's strategy for dealing with the media. There was simply no evidence of it. As the Pakistani officials announced in the Mughal Sheraton lobby, the haunt of the visiting journalists for three days, scores of them rushed to the Prime Minister's caravan sarai, Jaypee Hotel, only to find locked gates and stern-looking security guards mockingly greeting them. As they waited, the RAF personnel threw a cordon, to prevent any bid, to stop the General for a hurried question-answer session. After a 90-minute wait they saw the General's carcade emerging out of the ``In'' gate and speeding to the airport. The Indian officials did not want any such press conference, but there was none from among them to tell the media persons about it.

It was in line with the attitude for the whole of two days - lack of information, unavailability of responsible persons, a veil of silence on what was happening. Obviously, no plans, no strategy had been worked out by the Foreign Office mandarins. As a result, the spokesperson found herself, for no fault of hers, in an unenviable position of facing the dissatisfaction of the media personnel, and worse, the boorish conduct of one or two from the Pakistani contingent. They aggressively shouted, blaming her for the denial of opportunity for a press conference by the General.

The Indian side will have to learn some lessons from this civilian-military dialogue as against the civilian-civilian meetings at Shimla and Lahore.

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