India would have the fastest economic expansion among Asian countries and its gross domestic product is expected to grow by 6.3 per cent in 2015, according to Morgan Stanley forecasts of global economies.
The Indian rupee’s exchange rate to dollar would be at Rs. 62.2 by end of next year compared to Rs. 62 in the current quarter (Q4 this year), according to a presentation made at the Morgan Stanley’s Annual Asia Pacific Summit held here from November 12-14 said.
It is seen at Rs. 62.5 in the first two quarters of next year and Rs. 62.3 in the third quarter of next year.
Comparative to other Asian GDP growths, India would have the fastest economic expansion, it said. India’s gross domestic product is expected to grow by 6.3 per cent in 2015, up from 5.3 this year, it said.
“We are constructive on the INR from the outlook perspective,” Chetan Ahya, Morgan Stanley’s chief Asia economist said. Strong capital inflow and the current account deficit under-two per cent would add upward pressure on the rupee.
Reforms are providing confidence in the Indian economy growth. The Indian government’s policy action to improve business environment and lower oil prices are among the factors supporting the GDP growth, Mr. Ahya said. Structural reforms related to land, labour and tax supporting the economic growth would support economic growths in the coming years. The risk would be any disruption to execution and delivery of reforms as well as a slowdown in exports, he pointed out.
On imports, the lower oil prices have been helpful and supporting the economic growth. Oil imports were down at 4 per cent of the GDP now from 6 per cent in 2012. “It is obviously helping the recovery process,” Mr. Ahya said. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley has forecasted a sub-par global growth at 3.5 per cent in 2015, up nominally from 3.1 per cent this year. In Asia, China’s GDP is forecasted to contract to 7.1 per cent in 2015 from 7.3 per cent in 2014.
Asian GDP, excluding Japan’s, would grow to 6.3 per cent in 2015, up by a small proportion from 6 per cent this year. Japan’s GDP growth would be stagnant at 0.8 per cent in 2014 and 2015.
