With COVID-19 cases continuing to rise steadily in India, there seems to be no infection peak in sight yet. The curve of new cases for countries will eventually bend, but the area under the curve is an indication of the effectiveness of the COVID-19 response. India’s high case rate and spread suggest that the response has so far been ineffective.
Ideal curve
The graph shows the 7-day moving average of daily cases in select countries.
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New Zealand managed an “ideal curve” - rise in cases capped at a relatively small peak and eventually there were no increases at all.
Cases rose to a higher peak in South Korea but fell sharply rendering a near “ideal curve”. In India & the U.S. there is no peak in sight.
Peaks and days
More than 100 days since its 1,000th case, India registered a single-day spike of 27,774 cases - the 4th highest among all nations. Only six nations took longer to record their respective peak rises.
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Combined picture
The graph plots a country’s highest single-day spike against the days taken to peak since the 1000th case. India is among the few nations that had peak rises above 25,000 on a single day and did so more than 100 days after recording 1000 cases. The infections curve for these nations is not only getting steeper but also wider.
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Last word
The U.S. managed a dip in cases before opening up the economy brought a second wave of infections. Now the curve is scaling higher peaks. South Korea also had second & third waves but, unlike the U.S., with much lower case counts compared to its first wave.
There has been no major dip in case rise in India suggesting we are still going through our first wave. Rise in cases have slowed down relatively in Delhi, and Mumbai. But they have gone up in Bengaluru and Hyderabad and Tier-2 cities indicating a geographic spread of the virus in the country.
