Given that a substantial proportion of rural households depend on agriculture in Haryana, agrarian issues were expected to pose a significant roadblock to the Bharatiya Janata Party’s hat-trick in the State.
The farmers held protests to demand guaranteed Minimum Support Price (MSP) for crops. The political parties contesting in Haryana took this issue in their manifestos. The Congress promised a legal guarantee for MSP if elected, while the BJP committed to purchasing 24 crops at MSP. Using data from the CSDS-Lokniti survey, this piece explores farmers’ opinions on the BJP government’s ability to meet their needs.
Welfare schemes
The data reveal that while there are several welfare schemes from both Union and State governments, most farmers reported not benefiting from them, except for the Kisan Samman Nidhi Yojana, which provides up to ₹6,000 per year as minimum income support. Six in 10 farmers had benefited from this scheme. In fact, State government schemes performed poorly in reaching farmers (Table 1).
Another finding that emerges from the data is that the beneficiaries of these schemes were more likely to vote for the BJP than non-beneficiaries. However, interestingly, among those benefiting from the Kisan Samman Nidhi Yojana (which had the maximum beneficiaries), a greater proportion voted for the Congress compared with the BJP (44% versus 33%). Despite introducing several welfare schemes for this important segment, the government failed to implement them effectively.
Political commitment
The survey suggests that farmers perceived the Congress as the party that has worked the most for their welfare (Table 2). Asked which party had made the greatest effort for farmers, four in 10 (42%) farmers indicated the Congress, compared with 37% who favoured the BJP. The data suggest a clear preference among farmers for the Congress in terms of perceived advocacy and support for their interests, but a significant chunk also had trust in the BJP.
Farmers’ issues
The data reveal a polarised sentiment among the electorate regarding the BJP’s effectiveness in addressing farmers’ issues. About one in three farmers (30%) believed that the BJP had been ineffective in tackling their concerns. In contrast, about a quarter (25%) felt that their needs had been adequately met, suggesting that the BJP was successful in addressing the farmers’ issues to an extent (Table 3). These mixed responses underline a significant divide in perceptions of the BJP’s performance.
Vote Choice
When voters in Haryana were asked an open-ended question about the most significant voting issue, only 5% of voters identified farmer issues. However, this figure nearly doubled to 11% among farmers themselves. This clearly indicates that farmer issues were particularly important to the farming community in this election.
The data reveal a clear preference among farmers for the Congress, with 44% of farmers voting for the party compared with 35% for the BJP. In contrast, the voting patterns among non-farmers were more evenly distributed, with 41% supporting the BJP and 38% the Congress. This disparity highlights the stronger allegiance of the farming community to the Congress, indicating that agricultural issues significantly influenced their political preferences.
Given the significance of the Kisan issue in the Haryana Assembly election, the prolonged farmer protests served as a powerful expression of dissent against the BJP. The party’s failure to adequately address farmers’ demands over the past five years has resulted in a loss of trust within the farming community, leading many to support the Congress instead. Although the BJP was victorious, had the farmers backed the party, the difference, especially in vote share, would have been sharper.
CSDS-Lokniti survey
The authors are researchers at Lokniti-CSDS
Published - October 10, 2024 03:33 am IST
