The 18th Lok Sabha in 2024 will see only 26 Muslim MPs, a number equal to 2019, which was the second-lowest tally ever in the House of 543 members. Fourteen of them are in constituencies where the community is in a majority.
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The 2014 General Election saw the lowest Muslim representation in the Lok Sabha at 22, while the community had its highest ever presence in the Lok Sabha, at 49, in 1980.
In terms of population based on religion, the Muslim community stands second in the country. Although Muslim voters are seen as a decisive factor in each election season, representation for the community, even in States where it forms a sizeable percentage of the population, remains low.
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There are 15 Muslim-majority constituencies in India. Among them, Baharampur in West Bengal elected Congress’ Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury in 2019, and the Trinamool Congress’ (TMC) Yusuf Pathan, a member of the community, this time. The community is also dominant in Assam’s Barpeta, where Phani Bhusan Choudhary of the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) has won this time.
Political analysts attribute the diminishing number of Muslim legislators to the fact that most Opposition parties, since the BJP’s advent to power in 2014, have shied away from giving tickets to Muslim candidates, fearing a polarising contest, with their numbers dropping in each General Election.
The Congress, SP, and TMC, key members of the Indian National Developmental, Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) have given fewer seats to Muslim candidates. In 2024, the Congress nominated Muslims in only 19 seats when compared with 34 in 2019; the TMC fielded six Muslim candidates when compared with 13 in 2019; and the Samajwadi Party (SP) had only four Muslim candidates, half the number it had in 2019.
“Due to the narrative which has been created by the BJP, political parties are giving fewer and fewer tickets to Muslim candidates,” S.Q.R. Rasool Illyas, president of the Welfare Party of India, who was a candidate from the Jangipur constituency in West Bengal in the 2019 Lok Sabha election, said.
In 2024, the INDIA bloc, which includes the Congress, TMC, SP, Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), and the Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPI-M) has fielded 78 Muslim candidates, down from 115 in 2019, while the BJP has fielded one, and its ally, the Janata Dal-United (JD-U) one more in Bihar.
Both the TMC and SP are known to secure a sizeable number of Muslim votes.
Political analyst Rashid Kidwai feels that a truncated mandate for the BJP notwithstanding, Muslim candidates were unlikely to be nominated in higher numbers. “I don’t see this changing anytime soon,” he said.
The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) fielded 35 Muslim candidates in 2024, the highest among all parties, albeit almost half of the 61 it fielded in 2014. Opposition parties have, however, branded this an attempt to divide the community’s votes in constituencies where it matters in order to benefit the BJP, a narrative which is recurrent in many constituencies across the country that have a sizeable number of Muslim voters.
For instance, in the Krishnanagar constituency in West Bengal, which has been won by the TMC’s Mahua Moitra, party workers were concerned that S.M. Sadi, the joint Left-Congress candidate, could have cut into the community’s votes, which otherwise may have gone to Ms. Moitra.
“The Muslim voter in 2024 has voted very carefully. Muslims have tacitly taken a step back and voted for safety and security,” Mr. Kidwai said. “They (Muslim voters) would surely want a seat at the high table, but for now they are insecure about safety and security issues, and have made decisive choices while voting,” he added.
