With Maharashtra witnessing a wipeout of a Lok Sabha outcome, the results have been a near-decimation for Deputy Chief Minister Ajit Pawar’s ruling Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) faction, while the performance of Chief Minister Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena left a lot to be desired.
For the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which in 2019 had won a combined 41 of 48 Lok Sabha seats in alliance with Uddhav Thackeray’s undivided Shiv Sena, forming the Mahayuti coalition after Mr. Shinde’s revolt in June 2022 (wherein the latter split the Sena) has proved costly.
Meanwhile, taking the Ajit Pawar-led NCP faction along with it has neither benefited the BJP nor Ajit Pawar as the latter failed to win the Pawar clan’s citadel of Baramati.
Also Read:Election Results 2024 Updates
Despite both Mr. Shinde and Mr. Pawar having the bulk of MPs and MLAs with them, the alliance ultimately damaged the BJP, with factors like poor candidate selection and festering regional animosities among local satraps severely impacting the ruling coalition’s performance.
According to sources, there is intense speculation of a possible ‘course correction’ ahead of the State Assembly election, which is likely to held in October this year.
“There is a sword hanging over Mr. Shinde’s Chief Ministership, with speculation over whether he will retain his post after today’s dismal performance,” said political analyst Vivek Bhavsar.
According to him, given the BJP’s history of changing Chief Ministers before a major Assembly poll, the question remains whether Mr. Shinde will meet the fate of ex-Haryana CM Manohar Lal Khattar, who was replaced by Nayab Singh Saini ahead of the Haryana Assembly poll in March this year.
Embarrassment for Ajit
But the question of Ajit Pawar’s future in the Mahayuti is more complicated. His faction of the NCP won just one of the four seats it had fought on.
The high-prestige defeat in Baramati, where the Mahayuti and the BJP strained every sinew to defeat Supriya Sule, his uncle and NCP (Sharachandra Pawar) chief Sharad Pawar’s daughter, proved that the people of the constituency had not approved of Ajit Pawar’s alignment with the BJP.
Also Read: Maharashtra Election Results 2024 highlights
Ms. Sule’s thumping victory over Sunetra Pawar —the Mahayuti candidate and wife of Ajit Pawar —proved that his grip over the party machinery was not as strong as that of his 83-year-old uncle. Moreover, this is the second major electoral embarrassment for Ajit Pawar after his son, Parth, had crashed from the Maval seat in 2019.
It also showed that the mercurial leader, despite his affinity with BJP leader and Deputy CM Devendra Fadnavis, was not able to transfer NCP votes to the Mahayuti.
Mr. Fadnavis had, however, always maintained that the BJP’s alliance with Ajit Pawar’s NCP is “strategic” and born of thoroughly pragmatic considerations, unlike its organic alliance with Mr. Shinde’s Shiv Sena.
According to Pune-based analyst Rajendra Pandharpure, the undivided NCP’s vote base has always comprised Marathas, along with a large number of Muslim and Dalit voters, as well as a section of OBCs.
“This secular vote base does not appear to have transferred to the BJP as is evident in the election result. This makes the BJP’s alliance with Ajit Pawar quite pointless and may prompt a rethink on the former’s part soon,” said Mr. Pandharpure.
Internal tensions
Furthermore, rivalries between the three partners —particularly between the Shinde Sena and Ajit Pawar’s NCP —played a decisive role in letting the opposition MVA gain the advantage on key seats
In Nashik Lok Sabha seat, for instance, while the NCP was gunning for Chhagan Bhujbal, the BJP’s coalition compulsion to placate CM Shinde’s Sena led to incumbent Shinde Sena MP Hemant Godse being given a ticket. This schism led to Rajabhau Waje of the Uddhav Thackeray’s Sena (UBT) score an upset win over Mr. Godse, with Shinde Sena leaders accusing the Ajit Pawar-led NCP of not campaigning aggressively enough.
Likewise, in Maval, where Shinde Sena MP Shrirang Barne won a hard-fought contest, the accusation against Mr. Pawar’s NCP cadres was that they did not work wholeheartedly enough for Mr. Barne and the Shinde Sena.
In contrast, the cohesion between the three opposition MVA parties was far superior, barring a single embarrassment in Sangli Lok Sabha seat, where the Congress was at loggerheads with Uddhav Thackeray’s Sena (UBT).
“Ajit Pawar’s emphasis on winning Baramati saw him neglect the campaign for his Mahayuti partners. Eknath Shinde’s hard bargain with the BJP to secure more seats for his faction saw the BJP yield to his choice of candidates, even if they were not satisfactory. These factors have cost the Mahayuti severely,” said Mr. Bhavsar.
