In June 2022, Maharashtra witnessed a sudden change in government, with Eknath Shinde becoming the new Chief Minister in alliance with the BJP. This Shinde-led Mahayuti government has been in power for the past two years and four months.
The Uddhav Thackeray-led Maha Vikas Aghadi government, formed in 2019 through an unusual alliance, lasted for a little over two years, marred by the pandemic and internal party rebellion.
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Thus, during the five-year tenure of the current Legislative Assembly of Maharashtra, two governments have ruled the State, both led by Shiv Sena leaders. Naturally, a comparison between these two governments is often made. The survey sought responses on the performance of the two governments.
When people were asked to compare the Thackeray-led government with the Shinde-led government on overall development of the State, the former had a marginally higher rating (Table 1).
The Thackeray-led government had a similar edge among respondents on the question of maintaining social harmony in the State. There is a mere one percentage point difference between the MVA and the Mahayuti on the question of providing a stable government (Table 1), with one in five (21%) neither answering nor responding to the question.
On the question of improved basic infrastructure and amenities, the respondents have given edge to the incumbent Shinde government in the areas of condition of government hospitals, supply of electricity, drinking water, and roads.
The respondents were more positive about the MVA government in the areas of condition of government schools and colleges and condition of farmers (Table 2). The Shinde-led government scored emphatically over the Thackeray government in the areas of electricity, drinking water, and roads, with the lead of over eight percentage points (Table 2).
The MVA government scored higher than its successor by eight percentage points on the issue of condition of farmers, while its lead was three percentage points on the issue of condition of government schools and colleges. Importantly, in most areas of development, more than a quarter of respondents felt that the performance of both governments has been same (Table 2).
Voters who did not experience drastic changes in the performance of the two governments — whether positive or negative — have the potential to tilt the political balance in the coming election. Both alliances have their tasks cut out, needing to highlight their perceived successes and point to the alleged failures of their opponents during the campaign period.
The eight percentage-point gap between the performance of the two governments on farmers’ condition could play a pivotal role in the State, given the large agrarian base.
At the same time, improvements in road facilities and electricity may help the incumbent government in urban constituencies and among middle-class and upper-class voters.
On the other hand, the fact that close to half (45%) of the respondents still have positive memories of the Thackeray-led government could prove to be politically significant. However, it is also important to note that there appears to be no strong anti-incumbency sentiment against the incumbent government.
Published - October 21, 2024 03:35 am IST
