The stakes are extremely high in Odisha for the the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Biju Janata Dal (BJD), particularly for Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik, in the fiercely contested four-phase elections for both the Lok Sabha and the Assembly that will conclude on June 1.
If re-elected, the Odisha CM, who has been in the role for 24 years, would assume power for the sixth term. He may go on to become India’s longest serving Chief Minister, surpassing former Sikkim CM Pawan Kumar Chamling’s record.
The 77-year-old BJD chief, son of the late Biju Patnaik, did not have any experience in politics till he turned 50. Enjoying a stellar political career, he has never faced defeat in the Lok Sabha or Assembly elections.
Focus on the State
After a brief stint (1998 and 1999) as Union Steel Minister in the Cabinet of former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee, Mr. Patnaik took oath as Odisha CM on March 5, 2000. Since then, he has not shown an interest in national politics, choosing to focus on the State instead.
As a regional party, the BJD too has never been in out of power since its formation on December 26, 1997. Till 2009, both the BJD and the BJP remained in alliance.
After the regional party severed its ties with the BJP just before the 2009 election over the issue of anti-Christian riots, the party has consistently won over 100 seats in the 147-member Odisha Assembly in 2009, 2014 and 2019 State elections. The party has also fared outstandingly in the Lok Sabha elections despite fighting solo after 2009.
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In the history spanning over more than two and half decades, the BJD is arguably facing its toughest electoral challenge in the current elections, struggling to replicate its past remarkable performances in the face of a strong wave of anti-incumbency.
BJP’s best opportunity
For the BJP, this election represents perhaps their best opportunity to capture an unconquered State despite repeated efforts in the past. Prime Minister Narendra Modi reportedly enjoys the highest approval ratings in this eastern Indian State, further buoying the party’s prospects. Adding to their optimism is a strong undercurrent of dissatisfaction with the ruling party. However, in the lead-up to the elections, the BJP squandered a critical two weeks negotiating an alliance with the BJD, which led to loss of momentum against a party that has held power for 24 consecutive years.
Recovering from a temporary setback, the State BJP shifted into top gear, mobilising vast resources at its disposal and leaders from the central pool helmed by Mr. Modi and Union Home Ministers. Quite a good number of Union Ministers camped in the State recently to give a last big push to the party’s aspirations.
For the Congress, the elections also assume significance in its bid to stay afloat and prevent itself from becoming a non-entity in the Odisha political landscape.
In the BJP-BJD campaign war, V.K. Pandian, a close aide of Mr. Patnaik, who entered politics after voluntarily retiring from the Indian Administrative Service, became the primary target of the BJP. The party crafted its central campaign theme around his Tamil origin, aggressively pushing the narrative that he would succeed Odisha CM. The election strategy emphasised ‘Odia asmita (pride)’, focusing on the influence of the bureaucrat-turned-politician in Odisha’s governance and the BJD’s internal matters.
BJP leader and Union Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan returned to direct elections in his home State after a gap of 15 years. He has earned a name for himself as an election strategist for the BJP over the past decade, winning a plum portfolio in the Cabinet. A victory from the Sambalpur Lok Sabha seat would help him strengthen his position in the party while a loss could dent his reputation.
