India projected to be fastest-growing economy over next decade

According to Harvard researchers, the country has the potential to surge ahead of China, its neighbouring rival.

Updated - November 16, 2021 05:24 pm IST - NEW YORK:

Harvard researchers have said that India, with a projected annual growth rate of 7 per cent, has the potential to be the world’s fastest-growing economy over the coming decade, surging ahead of its South Asian economic rival China that will continue to see a slowdown.

Harvard researchers have said that India, with a projected annual growth rate of 7 per cent, has the potential to be the world’s fastest-growing economy over the coming decade, surging ahead of its South Asian economic rival China that will continue to see a slowdown.

India, with a projected annual growth rate of 7 per cent, has the potential to be the world’s fastest-growing economy over the coming decade, surging ahead of its South Asian economic rival China that will continue to see a slowdown, according to Harvard researchers.

“India has the potential to be the fastest-growing economy over the coming decade... India tops the global list for predicted annual growth rate for the coming decade, at 7.0 per cent,” new growth projections presented by researchers at the Centre for International Development (CID) at the Harvard University showed.

‘Chinese slowdown till 2024’

“This far outpaces projections for its northern neighbour and economic rival, China, which the researchers expect to face a continued slowdown to 4.3 per cent growth annually to 2024,” the report said.

South Asia and East Africa have the greatest potential for “rapid growth” as oil economies and other commodity-driven economies face the slowest growth outlook, it has said.

“India has made important gains in productive capabilities, allowing it to diversify its exports into more complex products, including pharmaceuticals, vehicles, even electronics,” said Ricardo Hausmann, Professor of the Practice of Economic Development at Harvard Kennedy School and CID director.

Translated into higher incomes

Mr. Hausmann noted these gains in economic complexity have historically translated into higher incomes.

“China has already realised many of these gains, doubling per capita income in less than a decade. We expect that India’s recent gains in complexity, coupled with its ability to continue improving it will drive higher incomes, positioning India to lead global economic growth over the coming decade,” he said.

The CID data predicted that growth in emerging markets will continue to outpace that of advanced economies, though the gap is closing.

Bullish on East Africa

CID is also bullish on East Africa, with Uganda, Tanzania and Kenya ranking in the top 10, with all predicted to grow at least 5.5 per cent annually.

The growth forecast also looks favourably on South-East Asia, where the Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia and Vietnam look to drive growth well above global averages.

Growth in advanced economies remains slow by comparison, though it has risen slightly in the projections in recent years.

U.S. to grow at 2.8% annually

The U.S. is expected to grow at 2.8 per cent annually to 2024, with higher growth predicted in the United Kingdom (3.2 per cent) and Spain (3.4 per cent), and slower growth in Italy (1.8 per cent) and Germany (0.35 per cent).

The United Nations has also predicted that India will continue to be the fastest-growing economy in the world in 2016 and 2017, projected to grow by 7.3 per cent next year and 7.5 per cent the year after, amid a global order that will see persistent macroeconomic uncertainties, diminished trade flows and stagnant investment.

0 / 0
Sign in to unlock member-only benefits!
  • Access 10 free stories every month
  • Save stories to read later
  • Access to comment on every story
  • Sign-up/manage your newsletter subscriptions with a single click
  • Get notified by email for early access to discounts & offers on our products
Sign in

Comments

Comments have to be in English, and in full sentences. They cannot be abusive or personal. Please abide by our community guidelines for posting your comments.

We have migrated to a new commenting platform. If you are already a registered user of The Hindu and logged in, you may continue to engage with our articles. If you do not have an account please register and login to post comments. Users can access their older comments by logging into their accounts on Vuukle.