The story so far:
The first phase of the French elections conducted on June 30, after President Emmanuel Macron’s sudden decision to dissolve parliament, has placed the far-right National Rally (RN) and its allies in the lead with a 33% vote share. The New Popular Front, a left-wing coalition, came second with 28%, while Mr. Macron’s centrist bloc got only 20.7% of the vote share. The second phase will be held on July 7.
Why elections now?
On June 9, Mr. Macron stated that he was dissolving parliament, three years too soon, observing that “France needs a clear majority if it is to act in serenity and harmony”. This announcement came after his bloc’s devastating defeat at the hands of the RN in the European Parliament elections. While the decision came as a shock to most of his party members and allies, Marine Le Pen, the RN leader, welcomed the decision, claiming, “we’re ready for it”.
Experts say Mr. Macron’s decision was an attempt to stop the rise of the RN. His gamble was that the French public, faced with the choice of having a far-right party in power, would consolidate against the right-wing wave. However, if that was indeed the reasoning, it seems as if Mr. Macron placed the wrong bet. Almost all opinion polls by major outlets were predicting a lead for the RN (but short of an absolute majority), while Mr. Macron’s approval ratings hit rock-bottom to 36%, according to a Toluna-Harris Interactive poll.
The sudden call for elections and the high stakes involved in the race has energised the electorate, with the Interior Ministry stating that 59.4% of registered voters had cast a ballot as of 5 p.m. on June 30, as compared to the 39.4% at the same time two years ago.
How are elections in France conducted?
There are 577 seats in the French parliament, which include 13 overseas districts and 11 constituencies that represent French citizens abroad. So to hold an absolute majority in parliament, a party needs 289 seats.
The first phase of the elections is equivalent to a qualifying round wherein candidates must at least get 12.5% of locally registered votes in order to stay in the race and not get eliminated. If a candidate gets more than half of the total votes cast in the first round itself, they will automatically win. If not, candidates who have met the qualifying criteria will move on to the second phase. At this stage of the elections, ‘horse-trading’ is a common practice wherein parties form blocs among themselves and drop candidates in constituencies which may split the vote and favour a rival party/alliance.
The 2024 snap elections are mainly a three-way battle between the RN and its allies, the New Popular Front, the left-wing coalition which include the Socialists, the Greens, the Communists and France Unbowed, and Ensemble, which is Mr. Macron’s bloc.
What is at stake?
The RN, founded as the National Front (FN), was established by Ms. Le Pen’s father, Jean Marie Le Pen. The FN was an offshoot of a fascist organisation created as a reaction against the Algerian war, the formation of the Fifth French republic and the protests of May 1968 in France. However, under Ms. Le Pen, the party has undergone a significant rebranding wherein she has sought to whitewash the party’s fascist roots as well as her father’s Holocaust denial and anti-Semitism. By changing the name of the party from FN to RN, Ms. Le Pen also softened the organisation’s once hardcore policies such as leaving the EU and opting out of the euro, the region’s currency. Additionally, ever since the Russia-Ukraine war and the subsequent energy crisis, the party has actively distanced itself from Russian President Vladimir Putin with whom Ms. Le Pen once kept close ties.
However, in other aspects, the RN is as far-right as it always was. The policy of ‘national priority’, which the RN espouses, gives French citizens the first choice when it comes to social housing, employment and social benefits — a scheme which goes against the French Constitution. Similarly, the RN is completely opposed to immigration. It calls for the deportation of all ‘illegal’ immigrants and strict border controls, and characterises immigrants as destroying the ‘European way of life’. The party has also promised to abolish citizenship by birth to children born to parents of foreign descent.
Thus, the RN has risen to popularity within the French republic due to fears of culture clashes, a cost-of-living crisis and Mr. Macron’s unpopular policies such as increasing the age of retirement. It increased its seat share in the French parliament from seven to 89 in 2022 and now hopes for it to jump as high as anywhere between 240 to 300 seats. Moreover, the party has also been able to tap into the electorate in the provincial towns and villages of southern France, mostly composed of blue-collar workers who have often felt neglected by the political elites of Paris.
Mr. Macron’s political gamble could potentially lead to France being ruled by a far-right party for the first time since the end of the Second World War. Already there have been reports of a rise in racist attacks, along with anti-far-right protests in many parts of Paris on June 30, some of which ended in violence and arson. The political uncertainty has stoked fear in immigrants and minority communities, particularly among Muslim groups who have often been attacked by the RN.
What happens next?
As the date for registering the final list of candidates who will be contesting from various constituencies is over, more than 200 candidates from the centre and left alliances have dropped out of the race in order to consolidate votes against the RN.
The sudden formation of the New Popular front (a reference to the 1936 Popular Front where Socialists and Communists allied against far-right rioters), is part of a practice known as the “republican front”, wherein centrist and left parties’ team up to keep right-wing parties out of power. However, whether the ‘front’ will hold this time is questionable, especially considering the presence of leftist leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon, a controversial figure who was accused of anti-Semitism by his rivals.
The president of the RN and its Prime Ministerial candidate, Jordan Bardella, has stated that he won’t enter into an alliance with any of the other blocs. He said he didn’t want to be the “President’s assistant” and that he would rather be a ‘cohabitation Prime Minister’ as accorded by the French Constitution. A cohabitation is where the President is part of one party and Parliament is ruled by a party not of the President’s. Here, domestic policy is governed by the Prime Minister and his Cabinet while defence and foreign policy are handled by the President’s office. Mr. Bardella, like his patron Ms. Le Pen, promises that he would prioritise French citizens and bring more purchasing power into their hands by reducing VAT on essential products such as fuel, food, etc.
The last time a snap election was called was in 1997, when centre-right President Jacques Chirac dissolved the National Assembly to consolidate his party’s dominance after a slew of unpopular policies surrounding fiscal austerity. However, his gamble backfired as a new left-wing government came to power inadvertently entering him into a cohabitation alliance. By next week, one would know whether Mr. Macron’s decision will also go the same way, and whether his party will be, as Ms. Le Pen stated, “wiped out” by the RN.
