The collapse of international tourism due to COVID-19 could cost the world at least $4 trillion in terms of global GDP for 2020 and 2021 according to a report from two United Nations (UN) institutions. India experienced a 54% drop in tourist arrivals in 2020 according to COVID-19 and Tourism: An Update , a joint report released by the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) and the UN World Tourist Organisation (UNWTO) on Wednesday.
Tourism is not expected to return to pre-COVID levels until 2023 or later, costing the world somewhere between $1.7 trillion and $2.4 trillion in 2021, based on three scenarios (optimistic, pessimistic, and a third scenario in which the uneven rollout of vaccines is considered). On average, in the absence of any economic stimulus, a drop in tourist sales leads to a 2.5 fold loss in real GDP due to linkages with upstream sectors like agriculture, according to the study.
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Developing countries could account for 60% of these loses owing to asymmetric vaccine roll-out globally the report said. Tourism is likely to pick up faster this summer in North America and Europe where vaccination rates are higher.
The impact of travel restrictions could be felt particularly by women and young people who are employed in significant proportions by the tourism sector, where barriers to entry are low. Some 100 -120 million tourism jobs are at stake as per the report.
The report recommends quick rollout of vaccines globally to bring back tourism, including in developing countries. It has commended the European Union’s (EU) digital COVID certificate and acknowledges the International Air Transport Association’s (IATA) travel pass which includes a vaccine certificate and test results. Agreed protocols for testing on departure could mean quarantine on arrival is not necessary, the report says.
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The report also recommends socio-economic measures to protect livelihoods. “Workers should be protected rather specific jobs in declining sectors, for example through training,” it says. Finally, some tourism-related businesses will not survive even after restrictions are removed, the report says, advising governments to decide which ones to support and for what duration.
