Former general Prabowo Subianto claimed victory in Indonesia's presidential election on Wednesday as preliminary results put him well ahead of his two rivals to lead Southeast Asia's biggest economy.
"All counts, all pollsters... showed figures that Prabowo-Gibran won in one round," he told a cheering crowd at a packed arena in central Jakarta, referring to his running mate Gibran Rakabuming Raka. "This victory should be a victory for all Indonesians."
Official results are not due until next month but at least four government-approved groups — making projections based on official early tallying — showed Mr. Subianto winning a clear majority in one round.
Polls have long shown the fiery Defence Minister to be the favourite for the presidency after he pledged to carry on the agenda of popular outgoing leader Joko Widodo, who is accused of inappropriately backing his campaign and whose son is Mr. Subianto's running mate.
While claiming victory, Mr. Subianto stressed "we must still wait for KPU's official result", referring to the election commission. "We believe Indonesian democracy is running well."
Mr. Subianto, who was a military chief during the Suharto dictatorship a generation ago, needs more than 50% of the overall vote and at least a fifth of ballots cast in over half the country's 38 provinces to secure the presidency.
The 72-year-old Mr. Subianto — who pushed street protests and launched legal challenges after losing the previous two elections — thanked his supporters and called for unity. "Now the campaign is over, we must unite again."
The government-approved polling groups' "quick counts" have also been used in previous elections by candidates to claim victory. The general election commission verifies and approves an array of pollsters who take samples at selected voting stations after polls have closed, and are allowed to watch the count by election officials.
Waiting for the count
Fellow candidate Anies Baswedan, who had been the favourite to battle Mr. Subianto in the event of a second-round vote, told reporters he would wait for an official announcement.
"We wait until KPU's counting has finished. Don't rush, relax, it's still a long way to go," he said.
But analysts said the projections indicate Subianto has likely avoided a second electoral battle in June against rivals Baswedan and Ganjar Pranowo.
"It depends which areas the sampling is coming from, but with those kinds of numbers I'm relatively confident he won't need a second round," said Justin Hastings, international relations professor at the University of Sydney.
A spokesperson for Pranowo, who is polling third, told a press conference his team had discovered "structured, systematic and massive" fraud in the election, without providing evidence.
Nearly 205 million people were eligible to vote in the fifth presidential election since the end of Suharto's dictatorship in 1998.
A logistical feat in which more than 20,000 seats were up for grabs saw planes, helicopters, speedboats and even cows used to cart ballots around the sprawling archipelago of nearly 280 million people.
The vote across 800,000 polling stations began Wednesday morning in the restive region of Papua and ended at the other end of the country in jungle-clad Sumatra, while some stations in Jakarta stayed open late after the capital was inundated by thunderstorms.
‘Cuddly grandpa’ with a long career in the military
Mr. Subianto's military service was a deciding factor for some. "He has a military background, so I think he will be a decisive leader," said Afhary Firnanda, a 28-year-old office worker in Jakarta.
Another key factor in his popularity is picking Mr. Widodo's eldest son, the 36-year-old Raka, for his vice presidential running mate, a move that has raised eyebrows. In October, Indonesia's then-chief justice, who is Mr. Widodo's brother-in-law, changed the rules that had barred candidates below the age of 40 from running for high office.
Mr. Widodo enjoys near-record approval ratings on the back of two terms of solid economic growth. "Jokowi's support was massive. Clearly, it was there. Social welfare aid was distributed through the state apparatus... that's the main factor," said Yoes Kenawas, political analyst at Atma Jaya Catholic University, using the president's nickname.
But some legal experts and rights groups have accused Mr. Widodo of improperly using government funds to support Mr. Subianto, who has rejected accusations of impropriety. Mr. Subianto was dismissed from the military in 1998 over accusations he ordered the abduction of democracy activists at the end of Suharto's rule, but he denied the allegations and was never charged.
He has since rehabilitated his image, thanks in part to a savvy social media campaign targeting Indonesia's youth that portrayed him as a "cuddly grandpa". But rights groups have expressed alarm that he could roll back hard-won democratic freedoms.
"We've been always worried about his commitment towards democracy," said Yoes Kenawas, a researcher at Jakarta-based Atma Jaya Catholic University. "If he wins, those questions will always linger."
