As he survived an assassination attempt by a whisker in Pennsylvania on Saturday evening, Republican Donald J. Trump’s image underwent an abrupt makeover. From defending charges of being an instigator and an authoritarian-in-waiting, he will now be seen as a target of political violence.
Mr. Trump’s defiant response in the face of death with his fist raised against the backdrop of an American flag could blunt his Democrat rival Joe Biden’s strategy of a counter polarisation, and reinforce his messianic claims. The bid on Mr. Trump’s life could derail the wobbly script that Mr. Biden struggled to put together after his meltdown in the presidential debate on June 27.
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Mr. Trump is seen as a divisive figure of U.S. politics, but Mr. Biden’s re-election bid is also premised on polarisation. With the Democrat base itself conflicted over his politics, Mr. Biden has raised the decibel on rhetoric on domestic and international questions to unify his party. All that adds up to a very elementary claim that Mr. Trump would be worse.
On two polarising domestic questions that can unite the progressives, Mr. Biden has raised the stakes since the debate — gun control and abortion decontrol. The Biden campaign has sought to corner Mr. Trump on both questions. The battleground States that turned by narrow margins in 2016, and 2020, are being addressed on these two questions which would not only charge up the Democrat base but also potentially swing women voters from the Republican side too. Against the backdrop of his accelerating gaffe train, Mr. Biden amplified his messaging on these two questions, contrasting himself with Mr. Trump in stark terms.
‘Washington Playbook’
But this has not stopped the chatter about his fitness to run for another term. In fact, it is growing into a clamour, being repeated by Democrat seniors and American strategists across the political divide. Mr. Biden has sought to talk up the Russia-China axis in recent weeks — though he mistook Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy for ‘President Putin’.
Mr. Trump’s first term had significantly disrupted what former President Barack Obama had described as ‘Washington Playbook,’ — the standard, usually militarised response to most global events. By confronting China and appearing friendly to Russia, Mr. Trump’s first term had disrupted this playbook.
Mr. Trump’s first term institutionalised rivalry with China in U.S. strategy, and Mr. Biden turned it into a new cold war by talking up the danger of an axis between Russia and China. This focus on Russia and China also helped Mr. Biden skirt two foreign policy setbacks under his watch — the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan without achieving the stated strategic goals and Israel’s war on Gaza that has scattered the Democrats.
On all these points, Mr. Biden’s claim of legitimacy has been that he is the most effective counter to Mr. Trump and his instincts. The stark scenarios that Mr. Biden portrays involve a double barrel polarisation — a U.S.-led world order threatened by an authoritarian Russia-China axis and the U.S. democracy threatened by fascism fuelled by MAGA [Make America Great Again] Republicans.
Mr. Trump is a common factor in Mr. Biden’s campaign narrative, which shows the former President as a stooge of Mr. Putin. The gunman in Pennsylvania has not merely dismantled this grand narrative of Mr. Biden’s claim of his own inevitability despite his infirmities but also reinforced the talking points of Mr. Trump.
Trump’s narrative
Mr. Trump has always claimed that he is a victim of a deep state conspiracy that undermined his first presidency, and thwarted his re-election in 2020. He has also, repeatedly, alluded to “a divine plan” in his politics — a theme that got an instant boost in social media chatter after his miraculous escape from the bullet on Saturday. Mr. Trump’s other talking points — American weakness, leftist conspiracies, and his claims of being a fighter and a true patriot, all fall in place for a perfect storm of a campaign for him on the eve of the Republican National Convention that begins on Monday in Milwaukee.
Mr. Trump presents himself as a strong leader and accuses Mr. Biden of being weak. By appearing unruffled and combative with blood dripping from his bullet injury, Trump can claim to have lived up to his boast. In the coming weeks, he is sure to use this to amplify his politics.
