U.S. attack on Syria cements Kremlin’s embrace of Assad

It has put paid to Putin’s designs to end conflict on his terms

In this Feb. 10, 2017 file photo released by the Syrian official news agency SANA, Syrian President Bashar Assad speaks during an interview with Yahoo News in Damascus, Syria. Syria decried a U.S. missile strike early Friday, on a government-controlled air base where U.S. officials say the Syrian military launched a deadly chemical attack earlier this week.

If Russia once maintained at least a semblance of distance from President Bashar Assad of Syria, it rushed to his defence after the U.S. missile strikes ordered by U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday. The attack cemented Moscow more closely than ever to the notorious Syrian autocrat.

Even as the United States condemned Assad for gassing his own citizens and held Russia partly responsible, given its 2013 promise to rid Syria of chemical weapons, the Kremlin kept denying that Syria had any such capability.

By championing Mr. Assad and condemning U.S. “aggression”, President Vladimir Putin of Russia seemed to be burying the idea that he could somehow cooperate with the Trump administration to end the conflict on his terms.

Course set

The solidarity with Damascus is likely to cause problems for Russia in the long run, analysts said, although Mr. Putin probably cannot be persuaded to loosen his embrace any time soon.

The Russian government often takes its time to react to major world events, but the Kremlin issued a prompt statement early on Friday castigating the United States for the missile strikes on al-Shayrat airfield.

The Russian Defence Ministry vowed to strengthen Syria’s air defence systems, sent a frigate on a port call and froze an agreement with the United States to coordinate activity in Syrian air space.

“Putin made a choice — to underline that Assad is his ally,” said Alexander Morozov, an independent political analyst.

“This will lead to Russia’s further isolation, but Putin will stand his ground.” Morozov and other analysts consider the policy problematic for various reasons.

First, Trump and his Secretary of State, Rex W. Tillerson, have painted Russia as at least partly responsible for the carnage among civilians that was fomented by the Assad government.

Winning at any cost?

Second, in continuing deadly attacks on civilians, Mr. Assad seems to want to pursue a military victory at any cost, putting a lie to Russia’s statements that a negotiated settlement is the sole solution.

That risks dragging out a war that Mr. Putin has depicted at home as quick, cheap and easy at a time when many Russians have been struggling economically. Trying to keep the length and cost of the war down is a crucial reason the Russians will avoid escalating any conflict with the United States, analysts said.

Third, the Assad alliance could undermine one of Putin’s main goals for entering the war: to try to make Russia a player on the world stage again as the indispensable broker in the Middle East.

Finally, of course, Syria presented Russia with an opportunity to break out of the isolation that resulted from sanctions imposed by the West.

The Kremlin thought that forging an alliance with the West on Syria would render illogical the idea of maintaining the sanctions. NYT