George Beebe is director for intelligence and national security at the Center for the National Interest, a think tank in Washington DC. He spent more than two decades in government service as an intelligence analyst, diplomat, and policy adviser. This included a stint as the Director of CIA’s Russia analysis and as a Special Adviser to Vice-President Dick Cheney for Russia/Eurasia and Intelligence Programs. Mr. Beebe spoke to The Hindu on the forthcoming summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin and how India fits into the scheme of U.S.-Russia ties.
What is the nature of the U.S.-Russia relations now and how are they being affected by the domestic politics in America?
U.S.-Russia ties are at their worst place since the highest point of the Cold War. One reason is that we have not been talking to each other. The bilateral relations are entangled with some very divisive domestic political questions. There are many people in the country who have a hard time understanding how Mr. Trump could have become President. For many people, it is easier to believe that the election result was a product of some extraordinary collusion between Russia and the Trump campaign than it is to believe that Mr. Trump actually won a majority in the electoral college. Those divisive feelings... have limited the Trump administration’s ability to conduct a normal diplomatic relationship with Russia.
There are a number of issues on which Washington and Moscow have a real conflict of interest. But the state of the overall relationship is much much more harder and dangerous than it should be given the areas of disagreement. I think it has reached a point where it has become quite dangerous.
What do you expect from the forthcoming meeting between President Trump and President Putin?
It is a positive step in principle. But there is a danger that both sides could try to do too much. Given the combination of the domestic tensions in the U.S. and the number of issues on which we have a real conflict of interest, if we try to do too much, we are likely to fail. That could be en even greater setback than not having a meeting at all. I think it is a necessary step to be talking to the Russians but we should limit our ambitions.
Do you think Russia and Mr. Trump colluded?
There is no question that Russians engaged in what they call an active measures campaign — before, during and after U.S. election. There was a combination of propaganda, at least some Russians were involved in the hacking of the DNC [Democratic National Committee] email servers. One can debate how significant those activities might have been in affecting people’s votes. No one has done a credible study on that. I am sceptical that it had any appreciable impact on voting. It was pretty small scale.
The numbers of people on social media will look impressive... [But] social media very very rarely change anyone’s opinion. Most of the time, people’s pre-existing views are reinforced. In any case, the name of the game in electoral politics is not to change people’s minds but [in] trying to get those already supporting the candidate or the party to turn out and cast the vote. And there is very little in [what] Russians did that could have affected the turnout.
You think the Russia operation was on the orders of President Putin?
I don’t know. But it was not a very large-scale campaign. Mr. Putin tends to operate in this area with a little bit of ambiguity. He sets the general course. There are also private citizens who are willing to do things that are in their view favourable for the regime... Many times, this could be something that Mr. Putin wants but not ordered. Both sides find this ambiguity useful. So I don’t know whether the Russian active measures campaign was explicitly ordered by Mr. Putin or not. I would say I am 50-50 about that.
How big a threat is Russia to American in comparison with China?
From a strategic perspective, China is a much more important adversary for the U.S. Its power, economically and militarily is growing. It is a far more formidable rival for the U.S. Part of the reason why the Russian relations are important for Washington is precisely that our interest [lies] in making sure that China and Russia do not cooperate against us. And that we have some counterweight to Chinese power and influence. Getting the U.S.- Russia relations on normal track will help us deal with our rivalry with China.
What are the other points of convergence between Russia and China?
There are several. One is strategic stability. Washington and Moscow are the world’s largest strategic nuclear powers and hence we have a special responsibility to the world, to maintain [our] relations in a way that brings broader stability to the world order.
However, the strategic order is changing, with China growing its nuclear power and new nuclear powers asserting themselves. India is one among them. Russia and China have an interest in maintaining stability in this changing order. The second area of common interest is counterterrorism. We have some significant overlap here. Nuclear non-proliferation is the third area of convergence in our national interests. Russia has a different way of dealing with this as we see in the case of Iran. Those are legitimate subjects for diplomatic engagement.
How does America sees the robust relations that its partners such as Israel, India and Turkey have with Russia?
In principle, there should not be a problem. It becomes a problem only when the U.S. tries to deal with Russia by seeking to isolate it internationally. And we did attempt to do that in the aftermath of Russia’s annexation of Crimea. We imposed sanctions and tried to isolate Russia. At the moment, we are not trying to do that and I don’t think it is possible to isolate a country is that is so large and so influential, with so many connections around the world. That kind of an approach was bound to fail. So, given that we can’t isolate Russia and we are not attempting to do that now, the fact friends and allies of the U.S. want to productive relationship with Russia should not be troubling to us.
How do you think Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA), the U.S. law that requires American secondary sanctions against other countries for ties with Russia, will play out?
This is going to potentially get us in quite a bit of trouble. I have a feeling that this is going poison our relationships with friends and in the end not have the impact on Russia that we intend. India and even in Europe. This is going to counterproductive.
There is an argument in America that Russia and Mr. Putin want to undermine democracy all over the world. Do you agree?
I don’t think that is true. Russia does not oppose democracy per se. The very fact that Russia has strong relationships with India, Israel, Japan... many other countries, is proof that they are not concerned whether a country is democratic or not. I think what Russia is concerned about is evangelical democratisation on the part of the U.S. — attempting to democratise Russia or countries around Russia in ways that Moscow believes have destabilising effects and also hurt Russian security. That they oppose. I don’t believe at all Russia is opposed to democracy in any ideological way.
