The story so far: The Haryana Assembly elections for a 90-member House are slated for October 5, and as the campaign intensifies, the State’s political dynamic is undergoing significant changes. Caste equations, internal party wranglings, the decline of sub-regional elites, and the impact of social movements are reshaping the electoral landscape.
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Is there a rural-urban divide?
Yes, a pronounced rural-urban divide exists in Haryana’s political scenario. As the crow flies to the west of Delhi and towards Punjab, there is a visible distribution of economy and society along the varying geography of the State. Urban regions of Gurugram and Faridabad in the south and Ambala, Panipat and Kurukshetra in the north have more industries and are dominated by businessmen, traders and middle-class voters who are occupationally linked to the non-farm sectors. The agrarian belt in the south-central area, from Rewari, Bhiwani, Jhajjar, Jind with a primarily rural population and some peri-urban population in Rohtak, Sonipat, Hisar are places where voters are closely linked to the farming sector. This region is also home to a significant Jat population, often described as the Jat belt of Haryana.
What are the electoral issues in the Jat belt?
Speaking to Jat farmers in the villages of Uchana Kalan, we came across three major issues shaping the electoral discourse for this campaign. These were: Kisan (the farmers’ protest and the contentious farm bills, which were later rescinded by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government), Jawan (the Agniveer scheme launched by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government in New Delhi), and Pehelwan (the wrestlers’ protest against the alleged sexual harassment by BJP politician and former chief of the wrestling federation). In some villages, a few disgruntled young men also add a fourth dimension to this discourse by bringing up the issue of rising unemployment. Essentially, these three or four factors are consolidating the anti-BJP vote and playing a key role in shaping the anti-incumbency electoral mobilisation, particularly among the Jat community.
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What is the mood in other areas?
In the industrial regions and among businessmen, traders as well as among many service-based communities within the Other Backward Classes (OBCs), one can easily find support for the BJP, which ranges on multiple persuasions, from Prime Minister Modi’s strongman image to the BJP’s emphasis on nationalism and patriotism. However, even within this support base, there is no visible enthusiasm for any State-level leadership within the BJP.
How are regional parties faring?
Regional parties like the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) and the Jannayak Janata Party (JJP), which traditionally rely on their rural and Jat support bases, lack substantial organisational presence in urban centres. They have not established strong cadres in cities, limiting their influence among urban voters. Conversely, the BJP and the Congress have a more substantial foothold in urban areas. Their better-established organisational structures, broader appeal, and focus on urban development issues enable them to dominate the urban electoral landscape. Urban voters tend to prioritise concerns such as infrastructure, employment opportunities, and governance — areas where national parties often concentrate their efforts. The parties are also more tightly organised around communities in the rural areas compared to urban constituencies, which is also reflected in the campaigning style in both regions.
Also Read: In Haryana’s Jat heartland, Modi attacks Congress over reservation and violence against SCs
To campaign in rural areas, large-scale community events are held for entire villages with 500-600 people gathering in every programme. In the urban areas, however, campaigning is done in a more diffused manner with small locality-based events limited to 50-100 voters at the most. While a candidate in a rural constituency covers almost three to four big villages in a day, an urban candidate is holding almost 15-20 small meetings throughout his/her campaign schedule in a single day. This divide highlights the differing priorities and approaches taken by political parties to reach out to urban and rural voters in Haryana.
What is the OBC stand on Congress’ caste census proposal?
The Other Backward Classes (OBCs) in Haryana are a critical demographic consisting over one fourth of the population, and both the Congress and the BJP are vying for their support. Traditionally, OBCs have leaned towards the BJP, attracted by the party’s policies and leadership. The Congress’ recent advocacy for a caste census and promises to enhance OBC welfare have introduced new dynamics into this alignment. The Congress has proposed increasing the OBC creamy layer income limit to ₹10 lakh, surpassing the BJP’s increase to ₹8 lakh. This move aims to make more OBC individuals eligible for reservation benefits in government jobs and educational institutions. Additionally, the party’s support for a caste census is designed to address issues of social justice and representation, appealing to OBC sensibilities. Recognising the importance of retaining its OBC voter base, the BJP has also intensified efforts to court them. The party has implemented policies to increase reservations in government jobs and education for OBC youth. Financial support measures, such as scholarships and loans for OBC entrepreneurs, have been introduced to demonstrate commitment to the community’s economic advancement.
Despite these efforts, internal challenges within the BJP, such as the defection of Karan Dev Kamboj — a prominent OBC leader — to the Congress, have exposed dissent within its OBC leadership. This schism may affect the BJP’s ability to fully consolidate OBC support. It is worth noting that the Congress’ overt Jat dominance substantively and performatively works in favour of the BJP as it helps them in consolidating the Jat versus others binary. In other words, while the OBCs have traditionally aligned with the BJP, the Congress’ caste census proposal and enhanced reservation promises are influencing some OBC leaders and voters to reconsider their affiliations. The degree of (re)alignment of OBC voters will depend on which party is able to persuade them through their political labour, and not just posturing.
What are the new dynamics of a Jat-Dalit coalition?
Forging a coalition between Jat and Dalit voters in Haryana is a complex endeavour due to longstanding social and economic disparities between these two communities. The Congress is attempting to bridge this divide by emphasising on inclusive policies and addressing issues pertinent to both groups. Congress’ prominent Dalit leader in the State, Kumari Selja, can be seen on posters emphasising not on Jati (caste) but on Maati (soil), invoking a fraternal coalition of different caste groups. The party is advocating for social justice measures, such as supporting a caste census and proposing economic benefits that cater to marginalised communities. The narrative of samvidhan khatre mein (the constitution is under threat) which has already been electorally useful for the Congress in the Lok Sabha elections held in May, seems to be a running topic even in this election campaign. By focusing on common interests like rural development, agricultural support, and social welfare programmes, the Congress aims to present itself as a unifying force capable of addressing the needs of diverse social groups.
However, internal challenges within the party’s state level leadership complicate this strategy. Visible divisions among the Congress leadership, with key figures like Bhupinder Singh Hooda, Kumari Selja, and Randeep Singh Surjewala conducting separate rallies, fuel perceptions of disunity. Such fragmentation undermines the party’s ability to present a cohesive front and effectively mobilise support across different communities. Despite these obstacles, the Congress continues its efforts to build a Jat-Dalit coalition, recognising that uniting these significant voter blocs is essential for electoral success. The party’s ability to overcome internal discord and convincingly address the concerns of both communities will be crucial in determining the effectiveness of this strategy.
Vignesh Karthik K.R. is a postdoctoral researcher at The Royal Netherlands Institute of Southeast Asian and Caribbean Studies. Sarthak Bagchi is an Assistant Professor at Ahmedabad University. Anand Mehra is a doctoral researcher at the Department of Political Science, Delhi University. Navya Singh is an independent researcher based in the NCR. This is the first of a two-part series.
Published - October 01, 2024 08:30 am IST
