The flash floods in the vicinity of the Amarnath caves that cost 16 lives already were not due to a cloudburst but an ‘extreme event’ that could not be forecast in advance. The consequences of global warming are that events such as these are likely to be frequent, said M. Ravichandran, Secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES).
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The MoES is the parent ministry of the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
On the sidelines of an event on July 11 to announce a clean-up of beaches in coastal States in September, Mr. Ravichandran said the floods were due to a “sudden” cloud formation and predicting them in advance was not yet possible because both the science as well as sophisticated instruments necessary for forecasting were insufficient.
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IMD meteorologist, Sonam Lotus, who heads the centre at Srinagar, in an interview to news site Kashmir Files, said rainfall registered at the Amarnath cave was around 2.5-3 cm an hour. Though that was not a substantial amount in the plains, in hilly regions it could mean a large volume that could inundate and overwhelm temporary habitations.
Revival of monsoon
July has seen the monsoon revive over many parts of the country, including Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand. Moisture laden easterly winds have been travelling from lower levels, reaching up to western Himalayas. These winds have been colliding with the westerly winds flowing across the upper levels. Convergence of the winds flowing from opposite directions led to formation of cumulonimbus clouds over the Kashmir region.
In the hills, clouds don’t easily dissipate and can get trapped over a certain area, bringing torrential showers and even a cloud burst. Monsoons in previous years too have seen similar short torrents that have caused immense damage. A 2013 cloudburst-like event in Kedarnath triggered massive floods that caused close to 6,000 deaths. There have also been incidents of rock debris and ice breaking off glaciers and causing floods such as the 2021 avalanche in Chamoli, Uttarakhand that claimed at least 200.
A 2020 report by the Union Ministry of Earth Sciences noted that there was rise in high intensity rain episodes along the west coast of India and along the foothills of western Himalayas between 1969 and 2015.