While rejecting Canadian charges against the Indian High Commissioner Sanjay Kumar Verma and other Indian diplomats as “persons of interest in the killing of Khalistani activist Hardeep Singh Nijjar”, the Ministry of External Affairs said that India “now reserves the right to take further steps in response to these latest efforts of the Canadian Government to concoct allegations against Indian diplomats”. According to several officials and former diplomats, India has a number of diplomatic options with which to respond, with consequences.
“The Canadian government would do well to apologise to India and walk back this absurd measure, unheard of in modern diplomatic practice. At a time when geopolitical interests are aligning, it is a pity that Canada’s political leaders have chosen to sabotage bilateral ties with India for short-term political expediency,“ former High Commissioner to Canada Ajay Bisaria said, calling Canada’s actions a “needless escalation” of an “already vexed diplomatic situation”.
In the immediate future, New Delhi must decide whether to continue to keep High Commissioner Verma and the other diplomats named in place — while they have diplomatic immunity, and cannot be arrested, the charges might make their movements in Canada difficult, and subject them to the ignominy of an investigation. Under the 1961 Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations, Article 29 states: “The person of a diplomatic agent shall be inviolable. He shall not be liable to any form of arrest or detention. The receiving State shall treat him with due respect and shall take all appropriate steps to prevent any attack on his person, freedom or dignity.”
The government could recall Mr. Verma. This would leave both missions in Delhi and Ottawa without High Commissioners, as the former Canadian High Commissioner Cameron McKay left Delhi in July after completing a three-year assignment, and his replacement is yet to take charge. This could lead to a significant downgrading of diplomatic ties in the manner of the India and Pakistan missions, where High Commissioners were removed by both sides in 2019.
The government could further downsize the Indian High Commission in Ottawa, bringing back diplomats, and demand that the Canadian High Commission do the same. In October 2023, in the wake of Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s allegation that Indian agents were being investigated for the Nijjar killing, and the expulsion of a senior Indian diplomat, India had not only reciprocated the expulsion, it had also demanded that Canada expel 41 diplomats or two-thirds of the personnel from its High Commission and Consulates in India. Another downsizing would squeeze operations further, and possibly mean a drastic cut in the number of visas allowed, which are already lower than previous years due to the tensions, as well as new Canadian cuts on student visas.
India could take economic measures of the kind it had against China in 2020. This would involve a go-slow on imports of Canadian goods, higher duties, special scrutiny of Canadian investments, as well as banning of certain companies and apps. India accounted for a quarter of pension funds’ investment flows in the Asian region from 2019 to 2023, a cumulative $55 billion in India.
India could cut ties more drastically by cancelling visas for Canadians altogether. In September 2023, India suspended all visa processing for Canadians across the board, given security issues, for about a month. As a majority of these visas are given to Indian-origin people returning to India to meet their families, this causes considerable hardship for the diaspora, especially those needing to return for weddings and medical emergencies, and their appeals to the government, both at the Centre and State-level here, become an issue. In addition, this could lead to curtailing travel ties, and direct flights between the two countries. During the COVID pandemic in 2020, India and China cancelled direct flights between themselves, and these have so far not been restored by New Delhi despite a number of appeals from businesspersons, tourists, and the Chinese government.
Published - October 14, 2024 06:11 pm IST
