After an uneventful southwest monsoon, this year’s first cyclone during the monsoon season is brewing over the South Andaman Sea and its neighbourhood and is expected to bring copious rain to the State during or soon after Deepavali. The cyclone, if it intensifies as predicted, will spare Kerala.
According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), a low-pressure area is likely to form over the southeast and adjoining east-central Bay of Bengal on Thursday, and become more marked during the subsequent 48 hours.
According to IMD sources, it is too early to predict the path and intensity of the weather system. However, as per the current conditions, the weather system is likely to move in the northwest direction and may reach the Andhra-Odisha border coast around October 25-26. There would be slight changes in its path according to the intensity of the system. Triggered by the system, the State is likely to receive heavy rainfall by the end of this week, including some extreme heavy spells in north Kerala and the Ghat regions.
Further, if it develops into a cyclone as predicted, it will have a direct bearing on the onset of the northeast monsoon. If the criteria set for the announcement of the northeast monsoon are not met before October 21, the onset can then be declared only after the cyclone, said the sources. The State has been getting moderate to isolated heavy rain for the past few days triggered by the cyclonic circulations over the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal.
The first cyclone in the calendar year 2022 was the ‘Asani, which formed in the North Indian Ocean region and made landfall on May 11, 40 km southeast of Machilipatnam and 50 km southwest of Narsapur in Andhra Pradesh.
Yellow alert on Tuesday
Meanwhile, a yellow alert has been declared across the State on Tuesday except for Kannur and Kasaragod warning of isolated heavy rain. The thundershower is likely to continue till October 21 under the influence of cyclonic circulations, according to a weather bulletin issued by the IMD on Monday.
Neryamangalam in Ernakulam recorded the highest rainfall of 10 cm in the 24 hours ending at 8.30 a.m. on Monday followed by Perumkadavila in Thiruvananthapuram and Kanjirapuzha in Palakkad with 7 cm each.
Published - October 17, 2022 08:35 pm IST
