BJP president J.P. Nadda flew into Agartala on Thursday to conclude the first of the BJP’s campaign yatras in the State ahead of the Assembly polls, but the rest of the party in the State has been going over what a coalition of the Congress and the Left parties could mean for the polls.
On Wednesday, CPI(M) general secretary Sitaram Yechury said that his party was keen to forge an alliance with the Congress and the Tipra Motha party in the State, as an effective front against the BJP and the Indigenous People’s Front of Tripura (IPFT). The Left parties are also keen that the Pradyot Manikya-led Tripura Motha also be part of the alliance.
For the BJP, the task being undertaken now is a micro survey of just what this alliance could mean on the ground. Senior sources in the BJP, involved in Tripura say that there is more to the scene than just plain arithmetic. “On the outset, it’s very apparent that for generations, the Congress vote has been anti-Left, since the two main parties in Tripura were the CPI(M) and the Congress, for that thinking to break will not be easy,” said the source. “Congress supporters who are anti-Left will either vote for BJP or the King’s party (Tripura Motha)
Even so, there are certain seats in the 60-member Tripura Assembly where the alliance is expected to help the Congress and CPI(M) candidates. “The Congress has a hold in the urban areas, while the Left is strong in rural Tripura. In urban seats like Kailashahr and Bardoli, the Congress will gain, and the significant Muslim population in Agartala 6 and Ram Nagar, if it consolidates because of the alliance will also hand overran advantage to the Congress,” said a source.
In Sonamura district, the BJP anticipates that the CPI(M) will gain in 4-5 seats, especially in minority dominated areas.
“We are, however, also aware of the fate of the earlier CPI(M) and Congress alliances in West Bengal. In 2016, Congress won 44 seats, the Left Front 32, while the TMC got 211, and in 2021, they failed to get a single seat. Arithmetic is not everything, chemistry also comes into play in elections. The ‘X’ factor in all this is Tripura Motha and the indigenous vote,” said the source.
For the BJP, among the nine Assembly polls coming up this year, ideologically, the most important one is Tripura, where the BJP directly takes on its ideological bete noire, the Left parties. The change in Chief Minister from Biplab Deb to Manik Saha and the earlier defection of four MLAs- Ashish Saha, Dibachandra Hranghkhawal, Sudip Roy Barman, and Burbo Mohan Tripura in the past year has hit the party hard. Dhananjoy Tripura, Brishaketu Debbarma, and Mevar Kumar Jamatia, who were MLAs with the ITPF, allies of the BJP had also quit in the past.
The announcement of a possible alliance between the Left and Congress is therefore something that the BJP is not taking lightly.
