In his response to a ‘calling attention’ motion on Wayanad landslides in the Parliament on Wednesday, Union Home Minister Amit Shah made several claims on early warning systems in India and how they were utilised to alert the Kerala government ahead of the tragedy.
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“On July 18, an early warning was issued saying that Kerala will receive more than normal rainfall in western coastal area. On July 23, it was reframed to very heavy rainfall. On July 25, the warning was made more specific to ‘heavy to very heavy’ rainfall,” Mr. Shah said in the Lok Sabha.
An India Meteorological Department (IMD) press release dated July 18 issued on outlook for a flash flood risk in northern parts of Kerala, among other places, until 11.30 a.m. on July 19. The extended range forecast, also issued on the same day for July 18-31, carried no mention of Kerala for the period, however.
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An IMD press release published on July 23 warned of “very heavy rainfall at isolated places” in Kerala and Mahe on July 25 (suggesting action), and heavy rainfall over isolated/some places in Kerala and Mahe from July 23-27.
The visual sub-division-wise weather warnings under this forecast carried an orange alert for Kerala for July 25 and a yellow “watch” alert for July 23, 24, 26, and 27. A yellow alert doesn’t specifically call for action.
The press release published on July 25 said “scattered to fairly widespread light to moderate rainfall accompanied with thunderstorm and lightning [was] very likely over Kerala and Mahe (and other places) over the next five days”, and heavy rainfall very likely at isolated places over Kerala and Mahe from July 25-29. Visual warnings, as depicted on maps, also showed a yellow alert for Kerala.
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The extended range forecast for July 25 to August 7 predicted “scattered to fairly widespread light to moderate rainfall accompanied with thunderstorm and lightning very likely over Kerala and Mahe [and other places], as well as heavy rainfall very likely at isolated places during the week”.
The July 29 press release by IMD issued an orange alert for very heavy rainfall at isolated places over Kerala and Mahe on July 29. The landslides occurred in the early hours of July 30.
A red alert for July 30 was issued in the press release published at 1.10 p.m., after the landslides had occurred. This press release also carried an orange alert for Kerala and Mahe for July 31 and August 1.
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The Agricultural Meteorlogy Division of IMD Pune, or Agromet, issued a forecast on July 23 for Wayanad predicting 15 mm of rain in the district on July 30, the day when the landslides occurred after extremely heavy rainfall. Fifteen mm of rainfall is not cause for worry, according to the IMD’s categorisation.
In its extended range forecast issued on July 25, IMD’s Meteorological Centre in Thiruvananthapuram predicted “cumulative above normal rainfall” for Kerala froom July 26 to August 1, but did not raise any alarms or issue any warnings. August 2-8 was predicted to bring normal rainfall to the State.
The district rainfall forecast issued by the Thiruvananthapuram Met centre on July 26 predicted “light to moderate” rainfall for Wayanad district on July 30.
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Mr. Shah also said in the Rajya Sabha that an early warning for rainfall of more than 20 cm and possible landslide was issued to Kerala on July 26. The IMD press release published on the day carried no such warning. Like previous editions, it carried a ‘yellow’ watch alert under visual sub-division-wise weather warnings.
After Mr. Shah’s remarks, Kerala Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan also said that the forecasts issued by IMD, the Geological Survey of India (responsible for issuing alerts related to landslides), and the Central Water Commission (for issuing alerts on river-related floods) were off the mark.
Mr. Vijayan also shared an image titled “Experimental Rainfall Induced Landslide Forecast Bulletin” for Wayanad district, issued on July 29 for two days. The bulletin predicted a “low possibility” of occurrences of landslides. This information is not available in the public domain.
Mr. Shah also said in Lok Sabha that “before 2014, there was only one way to respond to disasters – relief and rehabilitation.” This is incorrect. India set up the National Monsoon Mission in 2012 (now called the ‘Monsoon Mission’ or MM) to improve India’s monsoon prediction capabilities. According to the Ministry of Earth Sciences, the first phase of MM, called MM-I, was completed successfully in 2017.
MM-II began in September 2017 to focus on “predicting weather/climate extremes and development of climatic applications based on monsoon forecasts, especially in the field of agriculture, hydrology and energy sector, while continuing model development activities”.
MM-II is a part of Atmosphere and Climate Research – Modelling Observing Systems and Services (ACROSS). The Budget allocation for ACROSS plummeted in 2024 by ₹50 crore.