The View From India

What’s next for America after Trump shooting?

(This article is part of the View From India newsletter curated by The Hindu’s foreign affairs experts. To get the newsletter in your inbox every Monday, subscribe here.)

“..Then the worst President in the history of our country took over, and look what happened to our country,” said Donald Trump to a cheering crowd on Saturday evening in Butler, Pennsylvania. The former Republican President was talking about illegal immigration into the U.S. In two days, the Republican National Convention would begin in Milwaukee, in the battleground state of Wisconsin, where Mr. Trump would be crowned as the candidate of the Republican Party for the November Presidential election. “Probably 20 million people... If you really want to see something, take a look at what happened....” he continued to speak, pointing towards the massive video monitors that displayed figures of immigration, and then suddenly muffled gunshots were heard.

Trump, wearing a red MAGA cap, was seen clutching his right ear, and at the next moment, he was on the ground. People started screaming and scattering, and secret service agents rushed to cover Mr. Trump, while gunshots continued. Seconds later, Mr. Trump rose, surrounded by the agents and blood streaming down his cheek. While he was being escorted out of the stage, he punched the air with his right fist, an American flag fluttering in the background, shouting ‘Fight, fight, fight’, while the crowd erupted.

America is no stranger to political violence. Abraham Lincoln, the civil war era President, was assassinated by a Confederate sympathiser on April 15, 1865 at Peterson House Washington DC. James A. Garfield, the 20th President, was shot at the Baltimore and Potomac Railroad Station in Washington on Saturday, July 2, 1881. He died two and a half months later. William McKinley, the 25th President and a tall Republican leader, was shot in Buffalo, New York, by an anarchist on September 6, 1901. He died a week later. Elderly Americans might still be remembering how the assassination of of John F. Kennedy, the charismatic Democratic President, shook the country. Kennedy, who took the country back from the brink of a nuclear showdown with Nikita Khrushchev’s Soviet Union, was killed on November 22, 1963 by a gunman.

President Ronald Reagan was shot on March 30, 1981, but survived the attempt. America has seen countless attacks on other government functionaries and politicians, including the assassination of Robert F. Kennedy, a brother of President Kennedy and a powerful Senator and former Attorney General, on June 6, 1968. The bullets sprayed at the Trump rally, once again, shatter the sense of the nation’s security and expose the streak of political violence that hides beneath the civil facade of American politics.

The attack happened at a pivotal moment in contemporary U.S. history. The nation is divided. Mr. Trump was portrayed as a polarising figure by his opponents, while the former President attacked the incumbent, Democrat Joe Biden, as weak and incompetent. Mr. Trump, impeached, indicted, convicted and faced with several other legal challenges, has always accused of a conspiracy against his presidency and leadership. The Biden camp, on the other side, describes Mr. Trump as a threat to American democracy.

But Mr. Trump has a loyal base among the Republicans. He more or less enjoys the support of his party elites and rank and file for his candidacy. The Democrats, on the other side, are divided, especially after Mr. Biden’s poor performance in the June 27 debate with Mr. Trump. There are concerns about Mr. Biden’s age (he is 81, three years older than Mr. Trump) and health. At least 20 Democratic lawmakers have urged Mr. Biden to quit the race. But Mr. Biden has refuted such claims, saying he had beaten Mr. Trump once (in 2020) and that he could do it again.

A pro-Trump supporter holds a portrait of former President Donald Trump during a demonstration in support of former U.S. President Donald Trump who was shot the previous day in an assassination attempt during a rally in Pennsylvania, in Huntington Beach, California, U.S. July 14, 2024. REUTERS/Etienne Laurent | Photo Credit: ETIENNE LAURENT

The July 13 attack took place against this volatile political background. As my colleague and The Hindu’s former U.S. correspondent Varghese K. George argues in an analysis, the Trump assassination bid could reinforce the former President’s narrative and derail Mr. Biden’s plan to mobilise his base by portraying Mr. Trump as a divisive figure. “Mr. Trump presents himself as a strong leader and accuses Mr. Biden of being weak. By appearing unruffled and combative with blood dripping from his bullet injury, Mr. Trump can claim to have lived up to his boast. In the coming weeks, he is sure to use this to amplify his politics,” writes Varghese.

In other words, the assassination attempt could boost Mr. Trump’s chances for victory. Throughout the campaign, Mr. Trump had maintained a narrow lead over Mr. Biden. But after Mr. Biden’s debate debacle, Mr. Trump’s lead has widened. Before the July 13 shooting, Mr. Trump had an average 3-point lead over Mr. Biden in most opinion polls (according to FiveThirtyEight). The image of Trump staying defiant moments after an attempt on his life would allow the Trump campaign to double down on Mr. Biden, who is facing scrutiny over his health and facing calls from his own party to leave the race.

The incident does not only help Mr. Trump transform his image from being a polarising figure to an American survivor but also reinvigorate his MAGA rightwing base. Trumpism could grow in strength in the U.S., like, perhaps, Jair Bolsonaro mobilised Brazil’s rightwing after the 2018 assassination attempt, which eventually propelled his victory. Also, once the dust settles, there would be questions on how the Trump shooting happened. And how the secret service failed to spot and prevent the gunman, a 20 year old man identified as Thomas Matthew Crooks? There would be questions on whether there is a failure from the Biden administration in providing enough security to the former President. As of now, both Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden have called for unity. But such calls are unlikely to heal the wounds of polarisation that’s already cleaving American society apart.

Realpolitik

We are living in a world that’s fast changing. The U.S. remains the world’s most powerful country, but it’s no longer the only superpower; China, already the world’s second largest economy, is fast expanding its influence in East Asia. Russia is challenging the U.S.-led security architecture in Europe, but the prolonged war in Ukraine and the sanctions have pushed it to pivot to Asia. The U.S. opposed Russia’s war in Ukraine but supports Israel’s war on Palestinians. Around Taiwan and the Philippines, tensions between the U.S. and China are also rising. How to understand these changes in the global order, and what are India’s choices in this great power rivalry? To discuss these pressing geopolitical issues of the present, we are launching a new video explainer column called Realpolitik. In the first episode, Stanly Johny explains the two-state solution for the Israel-Palestine crisis.

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