A rocket attack on a football ground in Majdal Shams in the Golan Heights, in which 12 young people were killed, has taken West Asia to the brink of a wider war. Israel and the U.S. have blamed Hezbollah, Lebanon’s powerful Shia militia that is backed by Iran, for the attack. Hezbollah, which initially claimed rocket strikes on an Israeli military outpost in the nearby Mount Hermon, later denied any role in this incident. But Israel has not bought Hezbollah’s claims and is preparing its response. From October 7, 2023, the day Hamas carried out a cross-border attack in Israel, killing an estimated 1,200 people, a slow-burning war has been raging on Israel’s northern border with Hezbollah. When Israel launched the Gaza war following the Hamas attack, Hezbollah began rocket attacks from southern Lebanon, its stronghold, mostly targeting Israel’s military outposts in the occupied Shebaa Farms or the Upper Galilee region of northern Israel. Hezbollah’s attacks forced some 60,000 Israelis to flee from Upper Galilee, with Israeli forces carrying out air strikes inside Lebanon in retaliation. Hezbollah claimed that it was fighting Israel “in solidarity” with the Palestinians, while Israel’s leadership said none of Hezbollah’s attacks would go unpunished. However, both sides were, until recently, cautious not to let the conflict spiral into an all-out war. But the Majdal Shams attack seems to have broken those unwritten rules of the war.
Hezbollah’s claim that it was not involved in the attack cannot be taken for granted. It is possible that the group targeted IDF outposts in the Golan Heights, under Israel’s illegal occupation since 1967, and the rocket fell on the football field, but still the responsibility lies with the militia. Israel’s hands are not clean either. The IDF, whose Gaza campaign has killed thousands of Palestinian civilians, has also carried out strikes in Lebanon’s civilian neighbourhoods. Hezbollah and Israel last fought an all-out war in 2006, and it did not end well for the Jewish state. Hezbollah also takes credit in forcing Israel to withdraw from southern Lebanon after 18 years of occupation. And since 2006, Hezbollah has built a stronger army and a huge stockpile of weapons. A war could spiral out of control with a high risk of Iran’s involvement. Hezbollah’s rocket attacks in recent months have only provoked Israel; and Israeli strikes on Lebanon have done little in deterring the group. This cycle of violence is self-defeatist and there will be peace only if both parties reset the current hostility and calm the borders. The obvious first step is to end the war which triggered this regional crisis — the war on Gaza.
