If one goes by conventional wisdom on how people vote, Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan, who faces 15 years of anti-incumbency, should find it difficult to win another term when the State goes to the polls by the end of this year. This is suggested in the results of urban local body elections across 13 districts in which the Congress won nine of the 14 municipal seats, and the by-elections for the Assembly constituencies in Mungaoli and Kolaras (early this year) and Ater and Khajuraho (last year).
There are some signs that sections of the electorate, especially farmers, are unhappy, but that may not be enough for the Congress to defeat the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which is in power. The electorate could be inclined towards voting for the Congress, evident from a survey conducted by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) a few months ago. Some other surveys also indicate a marginal shift away from the BJP. But a divided Congress does not seem to be ready as yet to capitalise on this.
Despite the Vyapam scam, Mr. Chouhan is still very popular and the BJP has the advantage of projecting him again as its chief ministerial candidate. In this, the Congress is handicapped as it does not have a chief ministerial face. Despite the Vyapam scam being highlighted in the media, the Congress has failed to make it an issue that resonates with the common man. Compounding matters, the Congress’s State unit is a divided lot and there are many factions. Discussion about the Congress’s electoral prospects in M.P. invariably ends up being about factionalism. within the party. In this the BJP could score over the Congress, especially when the electorate compares the local and national leadership of the two parties.
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Strong leads
The BJP came to power in the State in 2003 winning 173 of the 230 Assembly seats with a 42.5% vote share. The Congress, which had been in power for 10 years (1993-2003), won only 38 seats with a 31.6% vote share. Though the vote share of the BJP declined from 42.5% to 37.6% in the 2008 Assembly elections, it still managed to win 143 Assembly seats against the Congress’s 71 seats. The BJP went on to register its third successive victory, winning 165 seats (44.9% vote share) in 2013; the Congress had a 36.4% vote share.
The BJP has won seats in five regions — Chambal, Vindhya Pradesh, Mahakoshal, Malwa Tribal and Malwa North. It is particularly strong in Malwa Tribal (28 seats) and Malwa North (63 seats). In these two regions, the BJP has always led over the Congress by huge margins. It also has a sizeable presence in the Mahakoshal region (49 seats). The Congress had a strong presence in Chambal (34 seats) and Vindhya Pradesh (56 seats), which borders Uttar Pradesh.
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The BSP factor
During the last 15 years the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) has been able to make inroads in these two regions and erode the Congress’s support base. While the overall vote share of the BSP has never crossed 10% — it got 7.3% in 2003, 9% in 2008 and 6.3% in the 2013 Assembly elections. But its votes are concentrated largely in the Chambal and Vindhya Pradesh regions. In the Chambal region it got a 13.7%, 20.4% and 15.6% vote share during the 2003, 2008 and 2013 Assembly elections, respectively. In the Vindhya Pradesh region, its vote share remained at 14.3%, 14.7% and 12.0% in these elections, respectively. All the Assembly seats which the BSP won (two in 2003, seven in 2008 and four in 2014) came from these two regions. Surveys indicate that the BSP may not have been able to expand its support base in other regions of M.P., but its vote share seems to have remained intact in these regions, which would be disadvantageous to the Congress.
What seems to still work in favour of the BJP in M.P. are its strongholds in the Malwa and Mahakaushal regions and its edge over the Congress in Chambal and Vindhya Pradesh due to a vote split between the Congress and the BSP.
Given these circumstances, the Congress might still find it difficult to defeat the BJP. At best, it could pose a challenge. The BSP is nowhere close to emerging as a viable alternative to the BJP. In the event of a three-way electoral contest, the Congress would need a 5% swing in its favour to cross the magic figure. An alliance with the BSP would make the Congress’s task easy. If the two form an alliance, which would help consolidate the anti-BJP votes, they would need only a slight swing to defeat the BJP.
Sanjay Kumar, a Professor, is the Director of the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS). The views expressed are personal