Byelections are usually subdued affairs in West Bengal and do not generate much interest in political circles. In the past few decades, the ruling party has won the majority of the bypolls. But the byelection to the Sagardighi Assembly seat is an exception not only because the ruling Trinamool Congress lost, but also because the results have triggered speculation of a new realignment in West Bengal politics.
The majority of the electorate in Sagardighi, located in West Bengal’s Murshidabad, is from the minority community. The Trinamool had been winning the seat with comfortable margins from 2011. The death of a former MLA and former Minister of West Bengal, Subrata Saha, in December 2022, had necessitated the bypoll. Saha had won the seat in 2021 by a margin of over 50,000 votes.
The Trinamool leadership was confident of once again winning the seat without much resistance. But the Left Front-supported Congress candidate Bayron Biswas sprang a surprise on March 2 by defeating the Trinamool nominee Debasish Banerjee by a margin of 22,986 votes. In the bypoll, Mr. Biswas, a local beedi baron, secured about 47.4% of the total votes polled, whereas the Trinamool nominee secured about 34.9% of the votes. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) candidate got 13.9% of the votes. This is in sharp contrast to the 2021 Assembly polls when the Trinamool candidate secured 50.9% of the votes followed by the BJP candidate with 24% of the votes and the Congress candidate with 19.4%.
Mr. Biswas’s victory has given the Congress an entry into the West Bengal Assembly after nearly two years. While stating that the results indicate that Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee is not “invincible,” State Congress president Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury acknowledged “strategic support” from the BJP in the bypoll. The BJP’s vote share dropped markedly and the Congress’s vote share increased significantly from 2021.
The drop in the Trinamool’s vote share and the increase in the Congress’s vote share indicates that a section of Muslims who had supported the ruling establishment have chosen the Congress on this occasion.
Ms. Banerjee said that the loss at Sagardighi was the result of an “immoral alliance” between the Left, Congress and the BJP. She accused the Opposition of playing the “communal card,” but added that she does not believe that minorities are shifting allegiance away from the Trinamool.
It is difficult to see any trend on the basis of a bypoll to one Assembly seat, but it is true that some Muslims have been feeling uncomfortable with recent developments in the State. The mysterious death of student leader Anish Khan, the arrest of Indian Secular Front MLA Naushad Siddique, who went on to spend 42 days in jail, and the recent scams including the recruitment scam has dented the image of the State’s ruling party. The Trinamool government has also been providing cash incentives for Durga Pujas and organising Ganga Aartis along the lines of the ones held in Varanasi. While the Trinamool leadership had vociferously opposed the controversial Citizenship (Amendment) Act and the National Register of Citizens, it has maintained a strategic silence on issues such as the construction of the Ram Mandir and triple talaq.
Among the factors in the 2021 Assembly polls which helped the Trinamool Congress resist the BJP was the support of minorities who comprise 27% of the State’s population. The BJP did not engage with the Muslim population then; the Assembly seats it won in areas such as Malda and Murshidabad was on the basis of polarisation of Hindu votes. The Muslims did not consider the third alternative being presented by the Left parties and the Congress.
However, the Sagardighi bypoll indicates some churning on the ground over the last two years. If the State Congress president’s claims that “strategic support” was provided by the BJP are true, it indicates something different is brewing in the West Bengal politics. The Trinamool will not only have to tackle the three major Opposition forces — the Left, the Congress and the BJP, but also keep its vote bank intact. Despite the existence of several welfare schemes, Muslims continue to be among the most economically backward groups in the State. The Trinamool cannot take their support for granted anymore.
Published - March 08, 2023 12:15 am IST
