In China, the Year of the Dragon has begun with unusual political intrigue. In recent days, the opaque world of elite Chinese politics has been preoccupied with three events, all strangely interconnected. Monday's visit to the United States by Vice-President Xi Jinping, who is set to succeed President and Communist Party of China (CPC) General Secretary Hu Jintao later this year, has dominated the front pages of newspapers. Chinese analysts are straining for a rare glimpse into the insights of a man, known to be very private, who will shape the next decade of political life in China.
The lead-up to his U.S. visit, seen as a grand announcement of the heir apparent's arrival on the world stage, has however been overshadowed by two high-profile corruption cases. First, People's Liberation Army (PLA) Lieutenant General Gu Junshan was removed from his post on corruption charges, becoming the highest-ranked PLA officer to lose his position in many years. He is thought to be the first casualty of a corruption crackdown within the military, led by a rising general Liu Yuan, who is the Political Commissar of the influential and vast Logistics Department. As with most corruption crackdowns in China, Lt. Gen. Gu's fall has been seen as the latest sign of an ongoing power struggle ahead of this year's leadership transition.
Then, last week, Wang Lijun, the police chief in the municipality of Chongqing who spearheaded a nationally-famous corruption crackdown that brought down some 1,500 officials, fell from grace in mysterious circumstances. Mr. Wang's corruption campaign had, in 2010, contributed to the fast rise of his boss and Chongqing party chief, Bo Xilai, who succeeded in launching himself as a front-runner for a prized seat on the nine-member Politburo Standing Committee that comes into power next year. Mr. Wang was first transferred out of his position as police chief to the education department as a Vice Mayor. He was subsequently found to have spent one day at the U.S. Consulate in Chengdu, on February 6, with suggestions that he was seeking political asylum. Rumours of a corruption investigation by central authorities targeting him and his associates swirled in Beijing, with the Chinese government saying on Thursday that it was investigating his day-long stay at the U.S. Consulate. The fall of Mr. Wang has cast doubts on Mr. Bo's own political future.
Similar histories
Mr. Bo, Mr. Xi and Gen. Liu all share strikingly similar personal histories. They are all children of once powerful and high-ranking Communist Party leaders. Bo Yibo and Xi Zhongxun were among the first generation of party revolutionaries, part of a group known as “the eight immortals”. Xi Zhongxun later became a Vice-Premier and a close ally of the liberal leader, Hu Yaobang. Xi and Hu were subsequently purged by hard-line factions in the party. Gen. Liu's father was the popular former President Liu Shaoqi, who, like Xi Zhongxun and Bo Yibo, was persecuted by Mao during the Cultural Revolution (1966-76).
Following Mao's death, the three leaders' legacies were rehabilitated. Their sons have since taken their place among a group of rising political figures in China dubbed as “the party of princelings”. They are the children of the revolution — the second generation of newly emerging political dynasties. Their presence in the party's highest positions has grown over the past decade. According to Bo Zhiyue, an expert on elite Chinese politics at the National University of Singapore, there were at least nine princelings in the 25-member Politburo between 2002 and 2007.
Today, they occupy high positions in every branch of the party, from foreign policy and the central bank to the biggest State-run firms. There could be as many as five princelings in the nine-member Politburo Standing Committee that will come to power next year. Xi Jinping may be joined by Bo Xilai — if he survives a tricky year ahead which will be marked by power struggles — as well as Wang Qishan, a Vice-Premier in charge of the economy, and Yu Zhengsheng, the Shanghai party chief.
The princelings by no means make up an organised factional grouping with identifiable ideological leanings. Many, like Mr. Xi and Mr. Bo, come from families and backgrounds with opposing ideologies. Yet they share an important connection — they not only have similar personal histories, but have all risen to their positions with the help of strong networks of often overlapping political connections, even if they have had to prove themselves by rising through every step of party ranks.
Visit to Chongqing
In December 2010, Mr. Xi paid a visit to Chongqing and heaped praise on Mr. Bo's work, in particular his campaign to revive Mao-inspired “Red culture” by sending students to work in the countryside and bringing back the singing of Red songs. Mr. Bo has also attracted many critics — especially on the Right — for his populism, and made enemies through his corruption campaigns, which some have derided as political opportunism. Curiously, both President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao have appeared cool on Mr. Bo's campaigns.
The events of recent days have only ever so slightly lifted the veil on the behind-the-scenes churning that is currently going on in the murky world of elite Chinese politics, raising more questions than they answer. Whether Mr. Wang's case is a sign of a backlash to the rise of princelings like Mr. Bo and Gen. Liu — who are, incidentally, known to be close associates — is uncertain. Recent reports have suggested that Mr. Wang's disappearance followed a collapse of his relationship with Mr. Bo, with Beijing appearing to back Mr. Wang against his former boss.
Priority and challenge
One Chinese source close to the party says behind Mr. Xi's rise has been his unique ability to play the role of “a balancing force” between different interest groups. He was chosen ahead of Mr. Hu's own protégé from the Communist Youth League, the current Vice-Premier Li Keqiang, at the previous party congress because he had good relations with all factions, from those who shared his princeling background and the military to even Mr. Hu. Mediating between the various interests of these groups as they struggle for power ahead of the leadership transition will be for Mr. Xi a pressing priority — and, arguably, his biggest challenge — as he assumes office in the Year of the Dragon.
ananth@thehindu.co.in
